USD/JPY Clears December High Ahead of US NFP Report
USD/JPY extends the advance from the start of the week to clear the December high (158.09).
Share this:
US Dollar Outlook: USD/JPY
USD/JPY extends the advance from the start of the week to clear the December high (158.09), but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) may show the bullish momentum abating as the recent rise in the exchange rate fails to push the oscillator into overbought territory.
USD/JPY Clears December High Ahead of US NFP Report
USD/JPY climbs to a fresh weekly high (158.43) as the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports that ‘the number of job openings was little changed at 8.1 million on the last business day of November,’ with the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) revealing that ‘the number of job openings increased in professional and business services (+273,000), finance and insurance (+105,000), and private educational services (+38,000).’
Join David Song for the Weekly Fundamental Market Outlook webinar.
David provides a market overview and takes questions in real-time. Register Here
US Economic Calendar
In turn, the update to the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) may also influence USD/JPY as the economy is anticipated to add 154K jobs in December, and evidence of a strong labor market may put pressure on the Federal Reserve to alter the path for monetary policy as the economy shows little signs of an imminent recession.
In turn, a positive development may generate a bullish reaction in the US Dollar as it raises the Fed’s scope to pause its rate-cutting cycle, but a weaker-than-expected NFP report may drag on the Greenback as it fuels speculation for lower US interest rates.
With that said, swings in the carry trade may continue to influence USD/JPY as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pursues a neutral stance, but the exchange rate may further retrace the decline from the 2024 high (161.95) as it clears the December high (158.09).
USD/JPY Price Chart – Daily
Chart Prepared by David Song, Senior Strategist; USD/JPY on TradingView
- USD/JPY trades to a fresh weekly high (158.43) following the failed attempt to close below 156.50 (78.6% Fibonacci extension), with a move above 160.40 (1990 high) bringing the 2024 high (161.95) on the radar.
- Next area of interest comes in around the December 1986 high (163.95), but USD/JPY may hold within last year’s range should if struggle to extend the recent series of higher highs and lows.
- A close below 156.50 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) may push USD/JPY back towards 153.80 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement), with a break/close below 151.95 (2022 high) opening up the 148.70 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to 150.30 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) zone.
Additional Market Outlooks
GBP/USD Recovery Keeps 2024 Range Intact
US Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Approaches November 2023 Low
USD/CAD Pullback Keeps RSI Below Overbought Territory
US Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD Attempts to Halt Five-Day Selloff
--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist
Follow on Twitter at @DavidJSong
Related tags:
The complete CFD trading experience
Award-winning platforms, competitive spreads, low commissions and dedicated support.
We live and breathe the markets and are dedicated to helping traders realise their ambitions as we continue to set the industry bar.
Economic calendar
Web Trader platform
Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Related articles
US Dollar Price Action Setups in Central Bank Week
We’ve heard from the Fed, ECB and BoC with the BoJ up next later tonight and DXY trajectory hangs in the balance depending on how hawkish the Bank of Japan might turn out to be.
Gold forecast: XAU/USD struggles as traders eye breakdown
After a three-day recovery, gold prices have fallen in excess of 1.2% so far today, as the metal continues to hover around the $4,000 level. Today’s bearish price action threatens this key level, especially when you consider last week’s 4% sell-off. For now, gold is hanging around this psychological threshold, but it remains to be seen whether it will hold for too long.
Nasdaq 100 forecast: Alphabet results reignite AI concerns
Disappointing results from a couple of major global technology names have put the AI trade back under scrutiny, with Nasdaq 100 futures falling around 1% after giving up the post-FOMC gains seen overnight. For now, our short-term Nasdaq 100 forecast remains more on the cautious side of things than outright bearish. The index remains close to its record highs and continues to find dip buyers. But could that change soon?
StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation.
StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.