Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Holds Major Support—Reversal Risk Builds

Australian Dollar Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Short-term Trade Levels

• AUD/USD AUD/USD has fallen nearly 4.5% from the monthly highs and is now testing multi-month downtrend support.
• The pair has held this key support for five consecutive sessions with an outside-day reversal today suggesting downside momentum may be fading.
• Risk for recovery within the broader downtrend into July- a break below support is needed to fuel the next leg lower in price.
• Thursday's U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report could provide the catalyst for the next directional move into the monthly cross.
• Resistance 6943, 7003/23 (key), 7120- Support 6880, ~6861, 6833 (key)

AUD/USD is attempting to stabilize after a sharp decline from the monthly highs, with price holding confluent downtrend support into the close of June. An outside-day reversal is taking shape just above the lower bounds of the downtrend, raising the possibility that downside momentum may be fading as the market heads into July. With the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report on tap later this week, traders are watching to see whether buyers can build on this recovery or if the broader downtrend quickly reasserts itself. Battle lines drawn on the Aussie short-term technical charts.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this AUD/USD technical setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook we noted that AUD/USD was rebounding from trend support and that, “From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to the upper parallel (7130s) IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below the 70-handle needed to fuel the next leg of the decline.” Aussie broke below support the following week with the decline extending nearly 4.5% off the monthly high before dropping into support last week at the 1.618% extension of the May decline at 6880.

The bears have been testing this pivot zone for five days now with price now poised to mark an outside-day reversal off slope support into the close of the month. The focus heading into July is on possible price inflection off this level for guidance with the short bias vulnerable while above.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at Aussie price action shows AUD/USD continuing to trade within the confines of a descending pitchfork with the lower parallel catching the downside for the past two-weeks. Today’s recovery is approaching initial resistance at 2024 swing high at 6943 with near-term bearish invalidation now lowered to 7003/23- a region defined by the 100% extension of the May decline, the 61.8% retracement of the late-March rally, and the 38.2% retracement of the decline off the yearly high. Note that the 75% parallel converges on this level into next week and a breach / daily close above would be needed to suggest a more significant low is in place and a larger trend reversal is underway. Subsequent resistance eyed at the 61.8% retracement near 7120.

Support levels are stacked at 6880 backed by the 200-day moving average (currently ~6860), and the 50% retracement / March low at 6822/33. A break / daily close below this zone would threaten another bout of accelerated Aussie losses with the first major technical consideration seen at the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 advance at 6757. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

 

Bottom line: Aussie trading just above downtrend support with price marking an outside-day reversal candle into the close of the month. Risk for price inflection into the July open. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 7023 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 6822 needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline.

Keep in mind that this is a shortened holiday trading week, with Thursday's U.S. employment report representing the primary macro catalyst. Consensus forecasts call for June Non-Farm Payrolls to increase by 110,000, while the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.3%. Although inflation remains the Fed's primary focus, a weaker than expected print on employment has the potential to limit the central bank’s willingness to tighten monetary policy and could curb the USD rally in the months ahead. Conversely, another resilient labor market reading would reinforce the case for a restrictive policy stance and should continue to provide support for the greenback. Stay nimble into the monthly cross and watch the weekly closes for guidance here. Review my latest Australian Dollar Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.

Key AUD/USD Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

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Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex