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EUR/USD Bulls Gain Ground, NZD/USD Bullish Bets Surge: COT report

NZD positioning jumps at fastest pace in 7 years, EUR longs extend, silver hits sentiment extreme while gold lags.

Matt Simpson
Matt Simpson

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EUR/USD Bulls Gain Ground, NZD/USD Bullish Bets Surge: COT report

Speculative positioning across futures markets showed notable shifts in the week ending 20 May 2025. Net-long exposure to the New Zealand dollar surged at its fastest pace in seven years, while traders extended their bullish bias toward the euro. In contrast, metals markets saw a divergence, with silver approaching a sentiment extreme as gold speculators remained cautious. Meanwhile, Wall Street futures posted modest net-long increases, but positioning remains well below 2024 peaks.

 

 

 

Weekly Market Positioning Overview – COT Report Highlights (17 June 2025)

•    US Dollar (USD): Asset managers trimmed their record-high level of net-short exposure to the US dollar by a mere -75 contracts, while large speculators increased their by 3l contracts
•    European dollar (EUR): Large speculators increased net-long exposure to the euro by 8.5k contracts to an 18-month high
•    British pound (GBP): Traders reduced net-long exposure to GBP/USD futures by -8.7k contracts (shorts rose 6.7%, longs trimmed by -4.3%).
•    Japanese yen (JPY): Net-long exposure fell -13.7k contracts, mostly driven by a 13% increase of gross-shorts (5.2k contracts)
•    Australian dollar (AUD): Gross-longs reduced to AUD/USD futures by -11.7% (-2.8k), though net-short exposure was effectively flat
•    Canadian dollar (CAD): Traders increased their gross-long exposure to CAD by 18.2% (7.4k contracts), and reduced shorts by -16.2% (-18.3k)
•    Swiss franc (CHF): Traders reduced their overall exposure by reducing longs by -15% (-12k contracts) and also lowering shorts by -8.5% (-2.6k contracts)
•    New Zealand dollar (NZD): Traders were on the cusp of flipping to net-long exposure by decreasing net-short exposure by 20k contracts 
•    Gold (GC): Large speculators increased net-long exposure by 6.4k contracts’
•    Silver (SI): Bets against silver were on the rise with gross-shorts increasing by 17.7% (3.3k contracts)
•    Crude Oil (WTI): Traders reduced short bets against crude oil by -16.2% (-22.5k contracts)

Commitment of Traders chart showing large speculator positioning as a percent rank over 3 years, 1 year, and 3 months across major markets. Bullish sentiment is highest for silver, bonds (10-year and 2-year), and the Japanese yen over 3 years, with silver and bonds at 100%. Australian dollar, CAD, and CHF show relatively low long interest. Notably, AUD sits near multi-year lows, while silver, Nasdaq, and bonds are near highs. The chart highlights extremes in speculative positioning, with S&P 500 and VIX showing moderate interest and energy markets like WTI at mid-range levels.

 

Bar chart showing large speculative positioning as a percentage of open interest across major assets. Green bars represent net long exposure; dark blue bars indicate net short exposure. Dots highlight 52-week highs (green) and lows (blue). Traders are most net long silver, 10-year and 2-year bonds, and equity indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Net shorts are concentrated in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, and NZD, with AUD and NZD near 52-week bearish extremes. Gold and JPY hold modest long positions, while WTI and VIX show minimal net positioning. The chart reflects current risk-off sentiment and safe-haven preference.

 

EUR/USD Positioning: Euro Futures – Weekly COT Report

Asset managers increased their net-long exposure to EUR/USD future to a 16-month high, large speculators increased theirs to a 15-month high. And with the euro considering a break of its three-year, nine-month high at the time of writing, it is hard to be bullish on the US dollar index right now – despite stretched net-short exposure. 

While large speculators saw a slight increase of gross-shorts, they also increased longs to their highest level since December 2023. And with net-long exposure not at a sentiment extreme for either trader, the EUR/USD could be looking at further gains to the detriment of the US dollar index.  

Asset managers raised their net-long exposure to EUR/USD futures to a 16-month high, while large speculators pushed theirs to a 15-month high. With the euro testing its highest level in nearly four years at the time of writing, it's hard to make a bullish case for the US dollar index—despite already-stretched net-short positioning. Although large speculators slightly increased their gross shorts, they also lifted long positions to their highest level since December 2023. And since net-long exposure is not yet at a sentiment extreme for either group, EUR/USD may still have room to rise—potentially weighing further on the US dollar index.

 

Get our exclusive guide to EUR/USD trading in 2025

Get our exclusive guide to EUR/USD trading in 2025

 

 

NZD/USD Positioning: New Zealand Dollar Futures – Weekly COT Report

Net-long exposure to New Zealand dollar futures surged at their fastest weekly pace seven years. The 202k increase was fuelled by a reduction of -14.7k short contracts, its fastest pace since December 2022, and a 5.3k contract rise of longs. Asset managers also followed the same pattern of closing NZD/USD shorts in exchange for longs. 

This coincided with positive developments from the US-China trade talks, after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) had already dopped hints that the easing cycle was at or near an end. Perhaps NZD/USD will now be the outperformer over AUD/USD, given the potential for at least two more 25bp cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australian (RBA) this year. 

The weekly chart of NZD/USD showing large-speculative positioning as a percentage of open interest across major currencies, commodities, and indices. Notably, net-long exposure to NZD surged at its fastest weekly pace in seven years, driven by a sharp drop in short positions and a moderate rise in longs. Similar sentiment was reflected by asset managers. The shift coincides with positive US-China trade developments and expectations that the RBNZ’s easing cycle is nearing an end — potentially setting NZD/USD up to outperform AUD/USD amid expectations for further RBA rate cuts.

 

Metals (Gold, Silver, Copper) Futures - COT report

While gold and silver prices have generally tracked each other higher in recent weeks, there is a clear divergence between the market positioning of the two. It is also plausible that silver positioning has reached a sentiment extreme, and gold’s gains could be capped with large speculators and managed funds less keen on chasing gold prices higher. 

A comparative bar chart showing large-speculator positioning in gold and silver futures. While both metals have risen in price recently, positioning data reveals a divergence in sentiment. Gold net-longs rose modestly and remain cautious relative to price levels, suggesting reluctance to chase the rally. In contrast, silver futures saw net-longs reach a 5-year high among speculators and a 13-week high among managed funds — potentially indicating a sentiment extreme. A shooting star candlestick on silver’s chart also hints at near-term exhaustion.

Gold Futures Positioning (GC): Weekly COT Report Analysis

•    Large speculators and managed funds increased their net-long exposure to gold futures by a combined 21.5k contracts
•    Net-long exposure is sitting around 10-week highs among both sets of traders
•    Whole net-long exposure to gold has been trending higher in recent weeks, it remains low relative to prices to warn of caution among the larger players

Get our exclusive guide to gold trading in 2025

Get our exclusive guide to gold trading in 2025

 

Silver Futures Positioning (SI): Weekly COT Report Analysis

•    Net-long exposure to silver futures rose to a 5-year high among large speculators and a 13-week high among managed funds 
•    Both sets of traders increased longs and shorts to show a lack of clarity around these highs
•    A shooting star candle also formed last week to suggest neat-term exhaustion to Silver’s trend

 

Wall Street Indices Positioning (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100): Weekly COT Report

Net-long exposure has been retracing lower on Wall Street futures this year. Given we’re nearly six months down already, perhaps we’re nearing the point where net-long exposure beings to increase. 

Line and bar chart showing weekly COT data for US equity index futures. The top panel displays S&P 500 futures, where net-long exposure by asset managers has begun rising after months of decline. Gross shorts dropped sharply by 238k contracts, while gross longs were slightly trimmed. Net-long positioning is recovering as price trades above 6100. The lower panel tracks Nasdaq 100 futures, with net-long exposure climbing to a 16-week high of 22.4k contracts. Both gross longs and gross shorts rose modestly, with gross shorts up 910 contracts. Price is nearing all-time highs, reflecting growing bullish sentiment in futures positioning.

S&P 500 Futures Positioning (ES): Weekly COT Report Analysis

•    Asset managers increased net-long exposure to S&P 500 futures by 20.6k contracts
•    Gross-longs were trimmed by -3.5k contracts
•    Gross-shorts fell by -238k
•    Given S&P 500 futures are back above 6100, perhaps it will gun for its record high

Get our exclusive guide to index trading in 2025

Get our exclusive guide to index trading in 2025

 

Nasdaq 100 Futures Positioning (NQ): Weekly COT Report Analysis

•    Net-long exposure to Nasdaq 100 futures rose to the 16-week high of 22.4k contracts
•    Gross longs and shorts were increased by 2.7k contracts
•    Gross-shorts increased by 910 contacts
•    Like the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100 could be considering a break for its all-time high

 

 

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