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USD/JPY analysis: BoJ disappoints as focus turns to intervention and US data - Forex Friday
Welcome to another edition of Forex Friday, a weekly report in which we highlight selected currency themes. In this week’s report, we will discuss the Japanese yen, US dollar and look ahead to the next week.
DJIA, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Forecast: US Indices Vulnerable Through Earnings Season
The DJIA, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 all look vulnerable to more downside as long as this week’s highs hold.
DAX analysis: Stocks hit by stagflation concerns amid earnings bonanza
DAX drops to test key technical support area as Wall Street is spooked by latest inflation data, further raising doubts over Fed's ability to cut rates. Earnings from Microsoft and Alphabet to come after the bell.
Dow Jones Analysis: DJIA falls after Meta disappoints, inflation rises
Meta beat earnings and revenue forecasts with EPS of $4.71 on revenue of $36.46 billion. However, the share price has slumped after weaker revenue guidance and higher spending plans. The selloff has hit sentiment and dragged other tech stocks lower. Meanwhile, the US Q1 GDP was weaker than expected, at 1.6%, annualised. However, core PCE inflation rose more than expected across the quarter. The Dow Jone analysis sees the price testing support at 38000,
US Core PCE Preview: USD/JPY Flirts with 155 Ahead of Key US Inflation Report
Diverging interest rate expectations between the Federal Reserve and the rest of the developed world have been THE biggest story of the year for FX traders (USD/JPY in particular), and Friday’s Core PCE report will be the next major test to determine if that trend will carry over into Q2
S&P 500 Forecast: SPX rises with earnings in focus, Tesla jumps
Stocks are pointing to a modestly higher start as earnings continue to roll in. However, gains could be limited after stronger-than-expected US durable goods orders revived concerns over the Fed keeping rates high for longer. Tesla is set to open 12% higher despite missing both earnings and revenue estimates. The market was more impressed by the news of an acceleration in the production of affordable EV models. Meta will report after the close.
DAX, USD/JPY Forecast: Two trades to watch
DAX rises with German IFO business sentiment data in focus. USD/JPY inches higher despite intervention threats and ahead of US durable goods orders.
Nasdaq 100 Forecast: QQQ rises ahead of Tesla earnings
US indices point to a stronger start as corporate earnings continue to roll in. Earnings are providing a welcomed distraction after worries over the Fed keeping rates high for longer hurt sentiment last week. US PMI data is due shortly and is expected to show business activity grew at a faster pace. Tesla is due to report after the close after the EV maker's deliveries fell in Q1 and as the share price trades down 40% this year.
GBP/USD, EUR/USD forecast: Here’s why the US dollar rally has stalled
The US dollar rally has stalled, and the longer is fails to extends its gains the greater the odds of a pullback. For today, flash PMIs have placed GBP/USD and EUR/USD into focus.
Crude oil outlook remains positive despite reduced war risk
Crude oil demand outlook will come into a sharp focus this week with the release of the global manufacturing PMI data, US GDP and the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation this week. Still, Middle East tensions remain the key driver of short-term price action. Meanwhile, WTI technical analysis suggests the longer-term trend is still bullish.
USD/JPY analysis: Currency Pair of the Week - April 22, 2024
US GDP, Core PCE and BoJ policy are among the risk events this week for the USD/JPY currency pair, as the focus turns to sticky inflation and elevated interest rates narrative from Middle East concerns for now. USD/JPY technical analysis point to a potential rally above 155.00.
EUR/USD, Gold, Crude Oil, 2-year note analysis: COT report
EUR/USD futures traders are on the cusp of flipping to net-short exposure, and managed funds are increasing their short exposure to gold and crude oil.
Weekly equities forecast: Tesla, Lloyds & Barclays earnings preview
S&P 500 and the FTSE fell last week after the market pushed back Fed rate cut expectations and as geopolitical tensions hurt risk sentiment. Look ahead; US core PCE will be a key focus next week, as well as earning season with Tesla earnings and UK bank's earnings.
USD/JPY 155 in focus around US inflation, BOJ meeting: The Week Ahead
155 has become the latest 'glass ceiling' for the rapid rise of USD/JPY. And with a key US inflation report, BOJ meeting and potential for risk-off sentiment next week, this key level could be tested and prompt a response from Japan's central authorities.
Crude oil spikes on reports of Israeli airstrike, gold threatens new high
WTI crude oil was up over 4% during the Asian session on reports that Israel’s middles had struck a site in Iran, further fans fears of a broader-scaled war in the middle East.
S&P 500 analysis: Will the recovery hold as focus turns to tech earnings?
S&P analysis: As markets have started Q2 poorly, amid interest rate uncertainty and raised geopolitical risks, investors are relying on earnings to provide boost, starting with Netflix today. S&P 500 technical analysis suggests more losses could be on the way, with 5,000 on the bears' radars.
China A50, Hang Seng, USD/CNH: Economic revival, state intervention creates ample trade opportunities
Chinese economic data is beating expectations at rates not seen since reopening to the world in 2023. And with the government and People’s Bank of China playing an active role in supporting mainland markets, it’s not surprising to see Chinese assets performing comparatively better than others across Asia right now.
USD/JPY, Nikkei 225: Even the strongest market trends are under threat
USD/JPY upside looks limited in the near-term, hindered by narrowing interest rate differentials and perceived increased risk of Bank of Japan intervention. The stronger yen may add to growing downside momentum in the Nikkei 225, putting two of the strongest market trends in 2024 under threat.
Crude oil analysis: WTI drops amid demand concerns
Middle East concerns should keep the downside limited for crude oil, after prices slid 3% as demand concerns intensified on weaker Chinese industrial data and amid the prospects of higher interest rates for longer. WTI technical analysis suggests the longer-term trend remains bullish, with the first short-term support level to watch coming in around $82 area.
DAX outlook remains unfavourable despite support from earnings
Earnings have helped to lift the mood so far in today's session, but risk appetite could be limited amid ongoing geopolitical risks and uncertainty over interest rates outlook. DAX technical analysis shows the German index is still residing in a bearish channel, despite the bounce.
EUR/USD, DAX may be down – but they’re not fully out
The US dollar has dominated sentiment for markets this past week, but with signs of momentum waning there may be hope for a rebound on EUR/USD and DAX - even if only minor.
WTI crude oil forecast: Price action unconvincing despite strong tailwinds, fat tail risks
Crude oil appears toppy after a mammoth rally since February, unable to push higher despite some seriously strong tailwinds stemming from geopolitics, supply curbs and ongoing strength in the US economy.
Nasdaq 100 Forecast: “Magnificent Seven” Q1 2024 Earnings Preview
The Nasdaq 100 is finally showing signs of breaking down from its 2-month sideways range between about 17,800 and 18,400 ahead of the Magnificent Seven stocks' earnings reports.