Weekly COT Report - Bulls Trim USD Exposure
Matt Simpson May 12, 2019 10:07 PM
As of Tuesday 7th May:
- Large speculators trimmed USD exposure by -$0.72 billion against G10 currencies and remain long by $38.9 billion.
- Traders were their most bearish on Euro futures since December 2016
- Net-short exposure on JPY futures were trimmed by -7.8k contracts, which was the largest weekly change among FX majors.
USD: Overall, large speculators have been net-long the dollar since mid-June 2018. Although longs were reduced by -$0.72 billion last week, exposure is near its most bullish since December 2015 continue to favour the USD against G10 currencies. Whist the 3-year Z-score is only +1.6 we should consider the potential of a sentiment extreme as bullish positioning is approaching historically high levels.
EUR: Net short exposure nudged its was to the most bearish positioning since mid-December 2016. Extending its bearish exposure by a mere 561 contracts, bulls closed out 1.2k long bets and shorts added 672 new short contracts. Still, prices have continued to trac higher since finding support at 1.1100 two weeks ago, so price action has not confirmed the increasingly bearish view. Like above, we should consider the potential for a sentiment extreme if prices fail to break lower, as the weeks progress.
JPY: As noted in last week’s report, the increasingly net-short exposure had been seen on lower volume whilst prices refused to break lower, bringing into question the true ‘bearishness’ of net-exposure. With trade talks dominating sentiment last week we saw increased demand for the yen, where 2.6k shorts were closed and +7.9k longs added. By Tuesday the net-long exposure had moved to its least bearish level in 4-week and shows sign of a potential trough.
As of Tuesday 7th May:
- Large speculators are their most bearish on Copper since early February
- WTI traders trimmed net-long exposure by -29.8k contracts
- Gold was the only metal we track to see an increase of net-long exposure
- Silver flipped to net-short
WTI: Net-long exposure fell for a second consecutive week by -29.8k contracts (about 4% of total volume) which was fuelled by -21.5k longs closed and +8.3k shorts added. WTI continues to coil above $60 and we remain bullish above $58.20, although we’ll continue to monitor this closely as a break lower would catch a lot of bulls off-guard and run the risk of this being a much deeper correction. For now, the near-term bias remains for a break higher from compression whilst $60 holds as support.
Copper: Copper traders pushed next-short exposure to its most bearish level since early February. We noted back at the end of March that Copper’s failed break higher could see further downside, although price action has been far from clean. Still, we remain bearish whilst it remains beneath the $2.90 with a view for it to try and re-test the $2.50-60 region.
Disclaimer: The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to Forex.com or GAIN Capital refer to GAIN Capital Holdings Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.