Asia FX Handover - 26th March 2019

   

  • Sentiment saw a mild rebound in Asia, with Japanese equities leading the way higher and bond yields moving in tandem. Although too soon to label it a 'turnaround Tuesday', investors get to pause for breath ahead of European and US open.
  • Feds Rosengren: Expects weak growth in Q1 before picking up to 2-2.5% for Q2-4; China and Japan are risks to the Fed's growth forecast; balance sheet is likely to grow, yet not desirable to see assets grow to pre-crisis levels; personally, doesn't see negative rates as an appropriate response to the next recession.
  • Nothing major came out of the BOJ minutes. The downside risks to Japan's economy are clearly tightening, and Japan may see increasing signs of sliding into recession depending on overseas growth and impact of sales tax hike. That said, there's scope to review their bond buying program yet also stated monetary policy shouldn’t react to each economic swing. 
  • USD/JPY tested yesterday's high yet remains reluctant to break the pivotal resistance zone between 110.25/35. US10Y pared yesterday's losses after it threated (yet failed) to close beneath 2.4%. Gold remains near its 4-week highs around $1320, although resistance appears to be the broken trendline form the November low. 



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