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What if the Fed Fund Futures curve is too dovish?
Fed fund futures (FFF) suggest an 87.1% chance of 25bp hike for today's FOMC meeting - and I agree with that part. But what about the rest of the curve?
Australian Dollar technical forecast: AUD/USD squeeze at support
Australian Dollar plunged nearly 8.3% off the yearly high with price turning just ahead of support at multi-month lows. Levels that matter on the AUD/USD weekly chart.
What to do when there is carnage on the currency floor?
With volatility and headline risk remaining high, we take a look at some of the key drivers and how to approach the currency market under such conditions.
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AUD/USD rate outlook mired by failure to test 200-Day SMA
AUD/USD appears to be reversing course ahead of the 200-Day SMA (0.6768) as it fails to clear the week high (0.6717).
RBA Governor Lowe uses the ‘p’ word
On the back of a 25bp hawkish hike, with hypothesized the potential for the RBA to be nearing a pause. Less than 24 hours later, Governor Lowe comes right out and says it.
The RBA hike by 25bp – but are they one step closer to discussing a pause?
An initial glance at RBA's statement suggests they are nearing the end of the tightening cycle, and perhaps one step closer to publicly discussing a pause.
AUD/USD defends January low ahead of RBA rate decision
AUD/USD appears to be defending the January low (0.6688) as it holds within last week’s range.
The RBA are expected to hike by 25bp tomorrow
If the RBA deliver another 25bp hike tomorrow, it will take their cash rate to a 10-year high of 3.6%.
Rising home loan arrears and falling dwelling approvals weigh on the Aussie
The Australian dollar is feeling the strain of housing-related headlines today, with mortgage arrears on the rise and dwelling approvals on the decline.
Australian Dollar short-term outlook: AUD/USD trend support in focus
The Australian Dollar plunged more than 4% off the monthly highs with Aussie now testing the range lows. Levels that matter on the AUD/USD short-term technical charts.
The Aussie dollar gets stunned as unemployment hits an 8-month high
December’s employment report raised a few eyebrows, as it was the first in a while to miss expectations and prompted us to question whether cracks were appearing in the economy. January’s report suggests there are.
AUD/USD eyes monthly low ahead of Australia jobs report
The update to Australia’s Employment report may curb the recent weakness in AUD/USD as the release is anticipated to show rebound in job growth.
Australian Dollar technical forecast: AUD/USD at pivotal resistance
Australian Dollar is back at a key resistance pivot and the broader October rally remains vulnerable while below. The levels that matter on the AUD/USD weekly chart.
Another 25bp hawkish hike from the RBA
The RBA hiked the overnight cash rate by 25bp to 3.35% - its highest level since September 2012 – and warned of further increases in the months ahead.
AUDUSD snap back under review RBA on tap
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision may fuel the recent decline in AUD/USD if the central bank signals a looming change in regime.
Four guys walk into a bar before central bank meetings…….
Will the RBA signal that they are going to pause the rate hike cycle?
The 200-day MA comes to the rescue for the #SP500 - with no thanks to #Yellen for *not* providing blanket insurance for US deposits, and #Powell insisting on 'fighting #inflation' Sentiment is back to the fragile stage! Short bias for #AUD remains (note 200-day MA capped… https://t.co/9EKqinocLv https://t.co/WgPEOIYW2l
Fed fund pricing calls bulldust on Fed hike(s)
Whilst the Fed effectively confirmed two more 25bp hikes to are to follow, Fed fund futures remain unconvinced and are pricing in a single hike to take rates to 5%.
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AU inflation – a report to match Australia’s (hot) weather
There’s no escaping the fact that Australian inflation continues to point the wrong way for the RBA and consumers alike. And today’s report should quickly eradicate hopes of an RBA pause in February.
Is the move higher in AUD/USD set to continue?
Will AUD/USD be able to break above resistance and continue higher? It may depend on the Q4 inflation data.
AU employment miss adds to the Aussie's woes
A weak lead form Wall Street weighed on the Aussie overnight, with today’s employment miss adding to its downside pressure.
Good news from China helps lift AUD/USD
It seems that the Chinese government is willing to help with additional measures.
The RBA's 25 vs 50bp hike debate is no longer ‘finely balanced’
The RBA’s November minutes lean towards 25bp hike/s with a pause along the way, with a 50bp hike likely requiring higher inflation expectations and wages.
Will US inflation be the next ‘hot beat’ on the dance floor?
Hopes are high that we’ll see core CPI data for the US soften slightly, but with the weaker dollar holding above key support it leaves room for gains with a slight ‘beat’.