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FOMC as expected; markets extremely volatile during presser.

As for other central bank meetings: within the next 20 hours markets will hear from the BOJ, SNB, Norges Bank, BOE, and SARB.

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September 21, 2022 04:45 PM

US Dollar Index reaches highest level since June 2002 ahead of the Fed

Be wary of a “Buy the rumor, sell the fact” trade in the US Dollar after the Fed’s decision later today.

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September 21, 2022 10:33 AM
Bank notes of different currencies

US headline PPI as expected; Core PPI higher

The reaction to today’s PPI print was relatively muted compared to that of yesterday’s CPI print.

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September 14, 2022 10:47 AM

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Research

AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY looking good for longs!

AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY formed bullish engulfing candles today, trading to their highest levels since 2015.

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September 12, 2022 04:35 PM

US ISM Manufacturing PMI data should delight the Fed!

Today’s US ISM Manufacturing PMI for August shows that the US is on solid ground. As a result, the US Dollar Index made new 20-year highs.

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September 1, 2022 03:16 PM
Research

DXY hits the brakes - will the Euro fly right by?

The initial reaction in the FX market was as expected yesterday after Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish remarks at Jackson Hole.

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August 29, 2022 11:19 PM
Research

Gold wrap: Can the US dollar give gold bugs a break?

With the US dollar index stalling below key resistance and a market-based measure of inflation expectations rising, we’re on the lookout for a countertrend rally on gold.

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August 29, 2022 10:40 PM
Research

Gold wrap: Can the US dollar give gold bugs a break?

With the US dollar index stalling below key resistance and a market-based measure of inflation expectations rising, we’re on the lookout for a countertrend rally on gold.

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August 29, 2022 10:40 PM

Q2 GDP revised higher, but so is the Price Index; DXY

The higher revision to the Price Index continues to shed light on the fact that Fed underestimated inflation over the course of the last year.

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August 25, 2022 11:51 AM
Close-up of bank notes in different currencies

US housing data slows, but the Fed is still ready to hike!

Will DXY continue to move up towards the July 14th highs at 106.31? If the Fed insists on continuing to hike rates, it may well be on its way.

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August 18, 2022 03:39 PM
Research

Whilst inflation may have peaked, the ‘Nowcast’ seems less certain

We saw some strong moves overnight following signs that inflation may have peaked, but a glance at the Cleveland Fed’s Nowcast places a fly in the ointment.

Jobs

Non-Farm Payrolls more than double estimates! What recession?

The US Non-Farm Payroll data released this morning showed that 528,000 jobs were added to the economy during July. This is more then twice the estimate of 250,000.

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August 5, 2022 10:29 AM
Yen, Euros and dollar currency bills and notes

Philly Fed shows risk of slowdown; DXY

The Employment component and the Prices Paid component were big contributors to the weaker print. Could we be seeing the first signs of a slowing jobs market and lower inflation?

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July 21, 2022 12:08 PM
Yen, Euros and dollar currency bills and notes

PPI follows CPI with stronger than expected 11.3% headline print

As the DXY continues to make new daily highs, it appears that inflation is still at the forefront of traders’ minds, with worries of a global slowdown right behind it!

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July 14, 2022 12:13 PM
Gold nuggets

Multi-decade highs in DXY continues to push Gold lower

The two assets currently share a correlation coefficient of -0.96, a very strong negative correlation. Therefore, if the DXY continues to move higher, one could suspect that XAU/USD will be moving lower!

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July 11, 2022 03:31 PM
Federal reserve building

FOMC Minutes: “More restrictive stance” to come?

The FOMC Minutes from the June 14-15,2022 meeting told a story of a scared Fed that will do anything to stop inflation from increasing, even if it means slowing growth.

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July 6, 2022 03:36 PM
Market chart

Core PCE not as bad as feared. But how much does it matter?

It probably won’t matter in isolation, as the Fed is now looking at a number of inflation data points to help determine the next direction for inflation in the US.

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June 30, 2022 11:33 AM

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Federal reserve Eagle

Core PCE: Still the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation?

US Core PCE is due out this week and if it is similar to other recent inflation data, it may be stronger than expected.

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June 28, 2022 11:09 AM
Close-up of bank notes in different currencies

Worse than expected US Manufacturing Production and Industrial Production top off a rough data week

Fed Chairman Powell said he does not see a spillover from the high inflation into the broader economy. Therefore, the Fed excepts to continue hiking rates.

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June 17, 2022 11:00 AM
Downward trend

Housing data and Philly Fed results don't inspire much hope for US economy

Jerome Powell said at yesterday’s FOMC press conference that he doesn’t see signs of a broader slowdown in the economy. Will his view change?

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June 16, 2022 12:46 PM
Federal reserve building close-up

FOMC recap: Fed hikes rates 75 bps, dot plots show much more to come!

The Fed statement said that it is “strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2% objective” and that it ”expects the labor market to remain strong”.

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June 15, 2022 04:05 PM
Federal Reserve eagle

FOMC Preview: Could the Committee hike 75bps?

With inflation continuing to increase and the Unemployment Rate at its lowest since February 2020, is it time for the Fed to surprise the markets and hike rates by 75bps?

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June 13, 2022 03:33 PM
Rocket taking off on a bright day

CPI is highest since 1981; DXY, EUR/USD

The reaction in the markets is a stronger US Dollar and a lower EUR/USD, which insinuates a call for more aggressive tightening from the Fed.

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June 10, 2022 10:40 AM