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EUR/USD outlook: ECB could deliver hawkish surprise - preview

The EUR/USD outlook is clearly going to change this week with both the Fed and ECB rate decisions to come ahead of US non-farm payrolls report on Friday. The stickiness of Eurozone inflation means there is a greater risk for a hawkish surprise.

Data Rundown: ECB, Fed Minutes...and Brexit Extension?

After a quiet start to the week, market-moving data has finally picked up, with traders keying in on three major events...

EUR/USD downside potentially limited as dovish ECB widely expected

The market is clearly expecting the ECB staff to lower their projections on GDP and inflation.

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March 7, 2019 01:47 AM

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Week Ahead: Three Major Central Bank Decisions and NFP

Looking ahead, the upcoming week features interest rate decisions from three major central banks (RBA, BOC, and ECB), while data highlights include UK and US services PMIs, Aussie GDP, Chinese trade figures and jobs reports from both North American nations.

ECB Recap: Economic risks to the downside, EUR/USD risks to the upside?

As unanimously expected, including by my colleague Fawad Razaqzada, the European Central Bank made no changes to monetary policy in today’s meeting. In its statement, the institution reiterated that it would leave interest rates unchanged through at least this summer, or as long as needed for inflation to converge toward the central bank’s target. Of course, this “decision” was widely discounted by markets, so it was Mario Draghi’s press conference that traders were focused on.

ECB preview: Dovish Draghi expected, so could EUR/USD rise?

The European Central Bank’s next policy ‘decision’ will be made on Thursday, but the focus will undoubtedly be on President Mario Draghi’s press conference.

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January 23, 2019 02:44 AM

ECB Recap: Setting the Stage to Push Back Interest Rate Liftoff?

In yesterday’s article, we noted that the European Central Bank meeting had the potential to be a bit of a non-event, and based on todays market’s reaction, that’s exactly what happened (see “ECB Preview: Dovish Surprise Possible, but Draghi Likely to Leave His Options Open” for more).

DAX: How will EU stocks react to ECB?

The European Central Bank looks set to announce the end of its QE stimulus programme today, as President Mario Draghi and co. have previously indicated.

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December 13, 2018 01:17 AM

ECB Preview: Dovish Surprise Possible, but Draghi Likely to Leave His Options Open

Amidst the ongoing Brexit hullaballoo (latest headlines suggest Theresa May will survive her no confidence vote as we go to press), tomorrow’s ECB meeting has no doubt snuck up on many FX traders.

EUR/USD: 3 Storylines Driving Trade at the Start of the Week

Risk assets are bouncing back after a rough holiday-shortened week in the US, with US stock indices gaining around 1% at the open to trade back at Wednesday’s levels. As my colleague Fawad Razaqzada chronicled earlier this morning, weekend progress on a Brexit deal has stabilized sentiment, though there are still plenty of hurdles to clear before a smooth transition is likely. In the FX market, last week’s “safe haven” winners (the JPY, CHF, and USD) are the three weakest major currencies so far today.

ECB Recap: Draghi Sticks to the Script, EUR/USD Bears Eye 16-Month Low Near 1.13

As my colleague Fawad Razaqzada noted earlier this morning, there was little reason for the European Central Bank to provide a boost to the euro and that the odds favored a slightly more dovish tone (see “Will ECB Drag EUR/USD Lower?” for more) …and that’s exactly what we’re seeing in the wake of the meeting.

Will ECB Drag EUR/USD lower?

I am trying to think how and why the European Central Bank or its President Mario Draghi might want to give the euro a boost today and can’t find one good reason.

Three central bank rate decisions and US CPI

Today promises to be another busy one for the currency markets as investors consider at least four major events. There are three central bank decisions and top tier economic data from the world’s largest economy to keep market participants busy.

ECB recap: “Through the summer” means through the summer

In perhaps the least surprising development of the year, the European Central Bank left all its interest rates and its asset purchase program unchanged in this morning’s monetary policy meeting.

Gold could move during Draghi presser ahead of US GDP

The focus is now turning to the European Central Bank, which decided a few moments ago to keep policy unchanged and re-iterated that rates will remain “unchanged at least through summer of 2019.”

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July 26, 2018 04:04 AM

ECB Preview: 2 key things to watch in an otherwise quiet meeting

Six years to the day after ECB President Mario Draghi vowed to do “whatever it takes” to preserve the euro, the currency union is doing is certainly on stronger footing than it was then.

EUR/AUD poised to breakout amidst next week’s AU CPI and ECB meeting

Notwithstanding President Trump’s daily twitter condemnations (trade partners and the Federal Reserve drew his ire this morning), traders have started to look ahead to next week’s trade.

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EUR/GBP on the brink as ECB-BoE policy divergence widens again

The EUR/GBP could be on the verge of a breakdown after the European Central Bank’s policy decision on Thursday.

EUR/CHF: Have bears regained the upper hand?

As my colleague Fawad Razaqzada noted earlier today, the euro spiked briefly after this morning’s ECB meeting before reversing violently back to the downside in a mirror of yesterday’s price action in the US dollar.

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June 14, 2018 10:01 AM

Gold faces key test amid central bank meetings

Gold faces an important few days as three major central banks announce their respective policy decisions. All bar one is expected to make a rate change and that’s the Federal Reserve today.

EUR/USD: “World Cup Week” for Economic Data

The euro is the strongest major currency so far in World Cup kickoff week, perhaps reflecting the fact that three of the four biggest favorites for the tournament hail from the Eurozone...

EUR/USD climbs as ECB officials fuel end of QE speculation

Although the Federal Reserve is almost certain to raise interest rates next week, it is the European Central Bank which all of a sudden is looking to be the more anticipated meeting.

EUR/USD plagued by sustained dollar rally, weak euro

On Wednesday, as markets awaited the scheduled release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last FOMC meeting, the US dollar continued to rally, hitting a new year-to-date high.