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EUR/USD Forecast: Can PMIs Break the Bearish Trend?

For this week, Eurozone PMIs and central bank speakers will be the big focus - see the key levels to watch on EUR/USD!

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EUR/USD, GBP/AUD analysis: European open – Jan 24, 2024

S&P global release their flash PMI reports for the major regions today. And with PMI reports from Europe and US, it places EUR/USD onto trader's radars.

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January 24, 2024 01:00 AM
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Can US PMI surveys and employment reports sway bonds? The Week Ahead

Last week we noted that bond yields could trump economic data this week, and for the most part they did. We can also extend that comment into next week, especially if they continue to retreat and loosen their grip on bearish sentiment and allow risk assets to rebound. Highlights in next week’s calendar include the NFP and ISM PMI reports, RBA and RBNZ monetary policy meetings, the quarterly Tankan survey for Japan and Canada’s employment report.

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September 29, 2023 12:16 AM

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FOMC, BOE, BOJ meetings, CPIs and flash PMIs: The Week Ahead – 15/09/2023

Whilst the Fed are expected to hold rates steady in September, next week’s FOMC meeting also includes the quarterly staff projections. And changes to dot plot or CPI estimates can be as good as a hike where market reactions are concerned. The odds of another BOE are next week are not as high as they were, which makes the preceding inflation report paramount to expectations for their next decision. And whilst the BOJ are unlikely to act, that is no reason to drop your guard given their tendency to surprise once in a while. We also have flash PMIs for major regions and inflation data to mull over.

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September 17, 2023 12:54 AM
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USD/CAD hits resistance ahead of BOC, US PMIs: European open – 06/09/2023

The Bank of Canada (BOC) are expected to hold rates at today’s meeting, given GDP unexpectedly contracted in Q2. Still, implied volatility has spiked higher for USD/CAD. Perhaps the BOC pause will not be as dovish as expected, Fed members tout a hold or the rise of bond yields (and therefore the US dollar) lose steam. If so, USD/CAD may be better for short bets beneath the April highs.

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September 6, 2023 01:25 AM
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USD/CNH, AUD/USD: Spluttering services sector activity in China is hardly new news

With policymakers continuing to rollout stimulus measures, it’s questionable whether the USD/CNH pop will last.

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September 4, 2023 10:55 PM
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USD/JPY: economic divergence to drive renewed downside?

As activity in other advanced economies starts to splutter, Japan is firing up.

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August 23, 2023 08:14 PM
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Trader’s guide to the Purchasing Managers’ Index

The Purchasing Managers’ Index is a popular formula to measure the monthly economic change in a country’s manufacturing sector. Traders can use it as a leading indicator to foresee economic developments.

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August 23, 2023 01:53 PM
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Jackson Hole, Powell speech to drive sentiment: The Week Ahead

The annual Jackson Hole symposium has arrived, and once again Jerome Powell will be the highlight of the event. Last year his speech marked the beginning of a 20% decline for the S&P 500 (which was already in a bear market), so his words clearly packed a punch. We also have retail sales data for the UK, Canada and the US and earnings from a few US companies can also help us measure consumer sentiment.

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August 19, 2023 01:33 AM
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EUR/USD Analysis: Debt ceiling negotiations set to resume, PMIs up next

The debt ceiling negotiations drag on for at least another day (and likely for the rest of the week). For now we can focus on today’s flash PMIs and how EUR/USD reacts.

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May 23, 2023 12:51 AM
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USD/JPY analysis: PMIs perk up, supply chain pressures ease

PMI data for Japan and Australian has surpassed expectations, which provides a positive lead for flash PMI data from Europe and the US. Meanwhile, USD/JPY bulls eye a move to 140.

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May 22, 2023 10:48 PM
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S&P 500 testing 6-week lows as ISM Manufacturing PMI shows price pressures remain

The prices sub-index rose to 51.3 in February, up from 44.5 in January, indicating that manufacturers are paying more for inputs.

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UK beats EU in the battle of PMIs; EUR/GBP takes a hit

EUR/GBP sold off aggressively after the UK posted a stronger flash PMI than that of the Euro Area.

February 21, 2023 03:31 PM
Research

China’s economy is expanding again, according to official data (USD/CNH)

The National Bureau of Statistics China (NBS) released PMI data this week which shows both the manufacturing and services sector are expanding.

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February 2, 2023 09:40 PM
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Average Hourly Earnings steals thunder in NFP jobs data

Markets are focusing on the Average Hourly Earnings data for December, which was lower than expected. But will the Fed see it as dovish as the markets?

January 6, 2023 11:13 AM
Research

China’s PMI’s continue to underperform, USD/CNH bulls eye 7.00

The National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) released PMI data for China, and is another data set which underperforms relative to expectations.

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August 30, 2022 10:21 PM
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US PMI’s disappoint ahead of key inflation data and Jackson Hole

Whilst US PMI data disappointed, it’s not as though the economic deterioration we’re witnessing didn’t come without plenty of warning. And the upshot all this is that it's deflationary.

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European and US PMIs weaker; EUR/USD remains near parity

With the Jackson Hole Symposium this Thursday and Friday and the Fed stating that it is “data dependent”, the US data matters more at this point.

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WTI lower, but it has little to do with the upcoming OPEC+ meeting

With negative manufacturing data beginning in China and continuing throughout the US session, WTI Crude Oil has been trading lower, down nearly 5% on Monday.

August 1, 2022 03:04 PM
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Fears of global slowdown continue to weigh on Copper and AUD/USD

With more manufacturing due out later in the week, traders need to watch Dr Copper to help gauge the health of the economy. If copper continues its move lower, watch for AUD/USD to move lower with it!

June 29, 2022 10:59 AM
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Poor PMIs underpin recession worries

This is the latest macro data to underscore worries about a sharp economic slowdown

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Lagarde comments, poor UK PMIs give EUR/GBP a lift

Hawkish comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde and weaker PMI data from the UK have helped push EUR/GBP back towards recent highs.

May 24, 2022 11:10 AM
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EUR/USD pulls back ahead of PMI’s, futures lower

PMI data makes up the baulk of economic data for Europe and the US, which kicks off with German data at 08:15 BST.

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May 24, 2022 01:30 AM