WTI

Concerns over rising inflationary pressures were building as we headed towards the end of 2024. And the rapid acceleration of crude oil prices this year is doing nothing to alleviate those concerns.

The macro drivers that fuelled the Trump trade in Q4 may need some sort of booster to be sustained. And futures positioning is already displaying early signs of caution among EUR/USD and commodity FX bears.

Since the beginning of the year, WTI has increased its price by more than 8%, surpassing the psychological barrier of $75, previously regarded as the closest resistance.

After rising in the first week of this year, oil prices are now showing a few signs of weakness as investors shift their focus towards Trump’s bearish energy agenda

Oil prices rallied more than 10% off the December lows with WTI attempting to breakout of a six-month downtrend. A multi-timeframe view of the oil technical charts.

During the final part of Q4 2024, WTI has remained within the $70 per barrel zone, fiercely resisting movements below this critical support.

See a preview of our full 2025 Crude Oil Outlook report!

See a preview of our 2025 Crude Oil Outlook report!

Highlighting demand concerns, the OPEC has today cut its oil demand growth forecast again. This is the fourth month in a row that it has done so. Weak oil demand in China, the world’s largest oil consumer, remains the primary driver of falling prices.

It was a lively day’s trade on Monday with Bitcoin reaching news highs above $80k and the USD index retesting its YTD high of 105.62. WTI crude oil and gold are on the brink of breaking key levels to the downside.

The immediate response in the commodities space to the Republican’s clean sweep victory has been a bearish one - especially for industrial metals. Copper and silver fell over 4% each, tracking weaker iron ore prices, while gold was off by around 3%. Crude prices fell too but came sharply off their earlier lows.

Oil prices plunged nearly 15% off the monthly high with WTI now approaching key technical support at the yearly lows. A multi-timeframe view of the Oil technical charts.

Crude oil forecast: Oil prices have shown some recovery, bouncing over 1% in early Monday trading, before easing a little off their earlier highs. However, after last week’s steep 9% decline, the broader outlook remains bearish, especially while WTI crude stays below the critical $70 mark. Could oil prices dip toward $65 in the days ahead?

With Wall Street indices holding up and Australia's strong employment report holding up the Aussie in a weak-yen environment, AUD/JPY looks set for a breaking. Crude oil looks ready for a cheeky bounce too.

Oil prices plummeted more than 7.3% today with WTI poised for an outside day reversal- risk for further losses. A multi-timeframe view of the Oil technical charts.

Traders appear to be booking profits ahead of a key US GDP report later today, with the USD index providing a solid bounce from 100. Gold might reach for 2700 (even if it does look stretched), while crude oil could be in for a deeper pullback.

EIA rude stockpiles data helped to push WTI oil a little off its earlier lows, but it struggled. We maintain a slightly bearish crude oil outlook, especially if WTI breaks back below the $70 on a daily closing basis. Should that happen, it could potentially pave the way for a deeper drop amid follow-up technical selling and given existing concerns about rising supply and lack of a sharper demand growth.