US Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD
EUR/USD climbs to a fresh weekly high (1.1699) as it extends the rebound from the start of the month, but the exchange rate may struggle to test the July high (1.1830) should it no longer respond to the positive slope in the 50-Day SMA (1.1600).
US Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD Climbs to Fresh Weekly High
Keep in mind, EUR/USD closed below the moving average for the first time since February after failing to test the September 2021 high (1.1909), and the development may indicate a potential change in trend as the weakness in the exchange rate pushed the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to its lowest level since January.
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Nevertheless, speculation for lower US interest rates may keep EUR/USD afloat as the Federal Reserve appears to be on track to further unwind its restrictive policy, and the exchange rate may appreciate over the remainder of the week as it starts to carve a series of higher highs and lows.
With that said, EUR/USD may further retrace the decline from the July high (1.1830) should the bullish price series persist, but the exchange rate may no longer reflect the upward trend from earlier this year if it struggles to hold above the 50-Day SMA (1.1600).
EUR/USD Chart – Daily
Chart Prepared by David Song, Senior Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView
- EUR/USD extends the advance from earlier this week to carve a series of higher highs and lows, with a move/close above the 1.1690 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) to 1.1750 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) zone bringing the July high (1.1830) on the radar.
- Next area of interest comes in around the September 2021 high (1.1909), but EUR/USD may struggle to retain the bullish price series if it struggles to push/close above the 1.1690 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) to 1.1750 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) zone.
- Lack of momentum to hold above 1.1560 (100% Fibonacci extension) may push EUR/USD back toward the monthly low (1.1392), with a move/close below the 1.1390 (78/6% Fibonacci extension) to 1.1440 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) region bringing the June low (1.1347) on the radar.
Additional Market Outlooks
British Pound Forecast: GBP/USD Rebound Persists Ahead of BoE
USD/CHF Struggles as More Fed Officials Prepare to Adjust Policy
USD/JPY Reflects Bearish Price Series amid Failed Test of March High
Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Coils Ahead of Canada Employment
--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist
Follow on Twitter at @DavidJSong
