AUD/USD Bounces Back Ahead of June Low to Register Fresh Yearly High

US Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD

AUD/USD extends the rise from the start of the week to register a fresh yearly high (0.6601), and the exchange rate may attempt to test the November high (0.6688) as it carves a series of higher highs and lows.

AUD/USD Bounces Back Ahead of June Low to Register Fresh Yearly High

Keep in mind, AUD/USD bounced back ahead of the June low (0.6373) to stage a four-day rally, and the US Dollar may continue to depreciate against its Australian counterpart as US President Donald Trump states on Truth Social that ‘our rate should be three points lower than they are.’

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Speculation for lower US interest rates may keep AUD/USD afloat as the Federal Reserve ‘projects that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 3.9 percent at the end of this year,’ but the central bank may retain the current policy at its next rate decision on July 30 as Chairman Jerome Powell warns that ‘increases in tariffs this year are likely to push up prices and weigh on economic activity.’

With that said, the recent rally in AUD/USD may turn out to be temporary should the Fed continue to endorse a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy, but recent price action raises the scope for a further advance in the exchange rate as it carves a series of higher highs and lows.

AUD/USD Price Chart – Daily

Chart Prepared by David Song, Senior Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView  

• AUD/USD rebounds ahead of the June low (0.6373) to register a fresh yearly high (0.6601), with a breach above the November high (0.6688) opening up 0.6720 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement).
• Next area of interest comes in around 0.6820 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement), but AUD/USD may consolidate over the remainder of the week if it struggles to extend the recent series of higher highs and lows.
• Failure to hold above the 0.6510 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to 0.6550 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) zone may push AUD/USD toward the monthly low (0.6455), with a move/close below 0.6430 (50% Fibonacci retracement) bringing the June low (0.6373) on the radar.

Additional Market Outlooks

British Pound Forecast: GBP/USD Stages Three Day Rally

Gold Price Rallies to Fresh Monthly High

Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Reverses Ahead of June High

USD/CHF Struggles After Testing Former Support Zone

--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist

Follow on X at @DavidJSong