Global Selloff Deepens as April 2 Tariffs Loom

Market Summary – 31 March 2025

Global Markets Rattle Amid 'Liberation Day' Tariff Shock

• Asian markets plunged, led by Japan’s Nikkei falling -3.8%, its worst drop in six months, with all 33 Tokyo sectors in the red.
• South Korean stocks also declined sharply, following Trump's confirmation of sweeping 25% global auto tariffs, starting April 2.
• The plan, dubbed “Liberation Day”, aims to level perceived tariff imbalances and targets all trading partners, escalating fears of a global trade war.
• European markets followed suit:
• DAX -1.08%, CAC 40 -0.97%, FTSE 100 -0.79%.
• Wall Street auto stocks, including GM and Ford, came under pressure, though Tesla remained resilient due to its domestic production base.

 

DAX Technical Analysis 1 Day

The Germany 40 (DAX) daily chart confirms a bearish breakdown, as price closed at 22,235.7, below the 50 EMA (22,256.8) and the previous consolidation support. The -1.00% drop reflects increased downside pressure and a clear loss of bullish momentum.

 Key Technical Signals:

• Price action: This is the first clean break below the 50 EMA since October 2023, which is a significant shift in market tone.
• RSI at 42: Momentum is now tilted bearish, with room to move lower before becoming oversold.
• Stochastic RSI: Deeply oversold (0.00/4.73), indicating the potential for a short-term bounce, but not a reversal signal on its own.

 

Next Key Support Levels:

• 21,750–21,700: The zone between the recent lows and the 100 EMA (21,426.6) — possible first target.
• 20,474: Major horizontal level from previous structure (December/January) and psychological round number.
• 20,308.1: 200 EMA – the long-term trend support.

Resistance to Watch:

• 22,500–22,600: Now-turned-resistance from the 50 EMA zone.
• 22,850–23,000: Breakdown point from previous rising wedge pattern.

Summary:

The breakdown beneath the 50 EMA, alongside bearish momentum and trend structure, tilts the bias to the downside. A relief bounce is possible due to oversold Stochastic RSI, but unless price can reclaim 22,600+, sellers are likely to remain in control. A continuation toward the 100 EMA and even 20,400 looks increasingly probable if the current momentum persists as the RSI has not reached oversold levels just yet..

 

Tariff Breakdown – April 2 Onward

Country/Region	Tariff Details
Canada	25% tariffs on most goods, including steel and aluminum products 10% tariff on oil and gas (delayed until April 2, 2025)
Mexico	25% tariffs on all goods
China	20% tariffs on all goods (increased from 10% on March 4, 2025)
European Union	Planned tariffs on EU goods, with Trump threatening a 200% tariff on EU alcohol
All Countries (Global)	25% tariffs on steel and aluminum products, effective March 12, 2025 25% tariffs on all vehicles manufactured outside the U.S., set to commence on April 2, 2025
Russia	200% duty rate on imports of derivative aluminum articles or those using primary aluminum smelted or cast in Russia
Other Countries	Reciprocal tariffs planned for April 2, 2025, targeting 15% of nations that account for the majority of U.S. foreign trade Potential targets include India, Thailand, Taiwan, Vietnam, Japan, and Malaysia, based on trade surpluses with the US or differences in average tariff rates

• Goldman Sachs raised U.S. recession odds to 35% (from 20%), citing tariff impacts.

Bond & Currency Markets

• Bond yields fell as risk sentiment deteriorated.
• Dollar weakened, especially against the yen, as the U.S.’s own policy risks undermine safe-haven status.

Commodity Watch

• Gold surged to fresh record highs above $3,100, up 17% this quarter, on escalating trade and geopolitical fears.
• Oil prices held steady, unaffected by broader equity sell-offs.

Orange Juice Collapse

• OJ futures have plunged ~54% YTD, now at 247 USX, down from a Dec high of 539 USX.
• Drivers of collapse:
• Consumer demand dropped 16% due to high prices and bitter taste from disease-affected crops.
• Brazil’s orange crop to rise 20% (Rabobank), triggering speculator exit.
• Despite the drop, prices still 150% above 2020 levels.

Crypto Market Update

• Crypto under pressure amid tariff uncertainty:
• Bitcoin -1% to $82,045, low at $81,300.
• Ether -1.5% to $1,809.93, down 19.2% in March, hitting 16-month low.
• XRP -3.5% to $2.10, erasing gains after SEC dropped Ripple case.
• Cardano -3.4%, Dogecoin -2.7%, Solana flat, $TRUMP -1.1%, near record lows.

Outlook

• April 2 marks a pivotal inflection point with full implementation of Trump’s global tariff plan.
• Equities, autos, and export-reliant sectors are under heavy pressure, while gold and safe-havens remain bid.
• Recession risks are climbing, and central bank rate cut expectations are rising across the Fed, ECB, and BOE.
• Investors await potential retaliation from key U.S. trade partners, and updates on potential tariff exemptions or negotiation channels, particularly with China.