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USD forecast: Positioning hints at headwinds for USD, 2-year yield

Short bets against the US 2-year yield continue to diminish yet remain at a sentiment extreme. And as the yield flatlined above 5% in 2023 despite aggressive short positioning, it suggests its yield may struggle to retake 5% this time around. And that could prove to be a headwind for the USD.

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USD/JPY forms bull flag above 150, Nasdaq ‘rebound’ tied to yields

The Nasdaq may have risen on Wednesday, but it appears driven by a pullback in yields. And if yields rally from a key level of support, it could propel USD/JPY higher and weigh on the Nasdaq.

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February 14, 2024 11:24 PM

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Can bondcano stay on the backburner? The Week Ahead

Bondcano, the phrase coined to described the sharp acceleration of bond yields to the detriment of equities, appears to be smouldering as yields have pulled back from their highs. It has certainly provided some relief for sentiment, given the well-based concerns that something was about to break in the financial system. But with the Fed members now striking a relatively dovish tone, it raises the question as to whether bond investors will now step back into the market to capitalise on attractive yields and take the sting out of bondcano’s tail.

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October 15, 2023 10:33 PM
Research

EUR/USD tries to snap its record losing streak: The Week Ahead – 06/10/2023

EUR/USD is on track for a record 12th consecutive losing streak. But given its hesitancy to test 1.04 and the potential for a false break of the January low, perhaps we’re finally nearing an inflection point for the battered EUR/USD.

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October 8, 2023 04:05 AM
Uptrend

S&P 500, Nikkei 225 analysis: Can someone let the dead cat bounce out?

US bond yields pulled back to give risk assets a reprieve from their selloff on Wednesday. But with bond market implied volatility also pulling back, perhaps there's a little more room for a bounce for the Nikkei and S&P 500.

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October 5, 2023 03:48 AM
Downward trend

Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100: Indices remain in the hands of bond yields

The bond rout and sharp rise in yields continue to take centre stage for sentiment. And the longer this trend persists, the greater the odds appear for indices to finally roll over. Given three key US indices are showing signs of stability around their respective support levels, it brings the potential for a minor bounce over the near-term. But if bond yields keep rising, any such bounce could prove futile for bulls.

WTI crude oil headed for $90? Yields perk up: European open – 5/9/2023

The US yield curve has continued to creep higher after the 3-day weekend in the US, heling the US dollar retain its place at the top spot among currency majors. Yet WTI crude oil is managing to outpace the dollar, and looks set for at least another attempt to test the $90 level.

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September 5, 2023 06:24 AM
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USD, GBP/USD analysis: Commitment of traders report (COT) – 04/09/2023

It is also worth noting that the 2-year yield printed a bearish engulfing week after a failed attempt to break and hold above 5%. And if yields continue to move lower over the coming weeks, it will likely weigh on the US dollar. Large speculators are slowly loosening their bullish grip on GBP/USD futures, with short exposure rising by 25% last week. Traders are also showing renewed bullish interest in gold and silver.

Research

Stocks off lows after dollar, yields collapsed

When bond markets move, investors in other markets always take notice

Forex trading

US Housing Market continues to show signs of weakness; USD/JPY

Watching US 10-Year Yields and USD/JPY could give a clue as to the next direction for mortgage rates.

Market chart

US data dump points to hawkish sentiment from Fed

Costs associated with producers will make their way to the end of the supply chain over the next few months and eventually be reflected in the CPI.

February 16, 2023 05:51 PM
Market chart

US Mortgage Rates fall for the first time in 11 weeks!

When will the housing market turn up again? This will most likely be after mortgage rates move lower.

November 2, 2022 05:17 PM
Federal reserve name plaque on building

Is the Fed about to slow the pace of tightening?

Will today’s “leak” to the WSJ be the straw that breaks the camels back regarding the US Dollar and US rates?

October 21, 2022 05:23 PM
Federal reserve name plaque on building

Is the Fed about to slow the pace of tightening?

Will today’s “leak” to the WSJ be the straw that breaks the camels back regarding the US Dollar and US rates?

October 21, 2022 05:23 PM