Markets Rally on Trade Hopes, Gold Hits $3,500

Market Brief – April 23, 2025

Asia Rallies on Trade Optimism

Asian markets jumped after President Trump hinted at reducing the 145% tariffs on China, aiming for a trade deal. Treasury Secretary Bessent called the trade war unsustainable and expects de-escalation. This boosted risk appetite and lifted global markets.

Dollar Under Pressure

Foreign investors have $26 trillion in U.S. assets. With the USD weakening, even small hedging moves (1%) could trigger $260 billion in outflows, pressuring the dollar and U.S. markets.

Gold Hits Record High

Gold soared 9% in five days to $3,500/oz — the strongest rise since 2008. Triggered by fears over Fed independence and strong Chinese demand. Long-term Chinese buying may keep prices supported even if U.S. futures see profit-taking.

DAX Technical Analysis 4 Hours

The Germany 40 (DAX) CFD – 4H chart displays a continued bullish breakout, with the index currently trading at 21,905.0 (+0.39%). After clearing major resistance levels, the price has now broken above the 200 EMA, suggesting a bullish shift in structure following the strong rally from April’s low near 18,600.

Technical Overview:

• EMA Structure: 
  • Price is above all major EMAs (20/50/100/200), indicating a full bullish realignment.
  • The 200 EMA breakout at ~21,850 is particularly notable, as this level acted as the upper boundary of the recent range.
• Price action: 
  • The market has formed a series of higher highs and higher lows, confirming an uptrend.
  • Currently testing post-breakout continuation; a small consolidation is healthy here.

Indicators:

• RSI: Approaching 70, signaling strong momentum, though nearing overbought territory.
• Stochastic RSI: Remains in the upper range – momentum remains with the bulls, but potential for short-term cooling.

Key Levels:

Support:

• 🔵 21,600–21,850 → Retest zone from 200 EMA and recent breakout
• 🔵 20,474 → Former resistance turned support (key pivot)

Resistance:

• 🔺 22,150–22,300 → Next major resistance zone from the March sell-off structure
• 🔺 Above that: 22,800–23,000

Outlook:

The DAX has now confirmed its bullish reversal, clearing critical resistance and forming a textbook breakout. As long as the index holds above 21,600–21,850, bulls remain in control. A healthy consolidation around these levels would build a base for the next leg toward 22,150+.

Bias: Bullish – Confirmed breakout, strong momentum, and trend alignment. Watch for retests as potential entry zones.

 

Key Data Today (USD):

• S&P Global Services PMI (Apr): 52.8 vs 54.4
• New Home Sales (Mar): 684K vs 676K
• Crude Inventories: +1.6M expected

Tech Earnings Ahead (Apr 24):

• Alphabet: EPS forecast $2.02 on $89.3B. Beat expectations in last 8 quarters.
• Intel: EPS near zero. Revenue falling. Hit by poor leadership and tech lag. Missed 2 of last 8 quarters. CEO changes not showing results yet.

Other Highlights:

• Trump wants Powell to cut rates but won’t fire him.
• EUR/USD below 1.14; USD/JPY retreats from 143+.
• European futures higher: EuroStoxx 50 +1.7%.
• Axios: Trump’s peace offer to Ukraine includes accepting Russian occupation.
• Central bank speakers and PMIs from EZ, UK, US on deck.

Earnings to Watch: Boeing, AT&T, IBM, Chipotle, Texas Instruments, Kering, Volvo, and more.