S&P 500 Forecast: SPX muted ahead of Fed conference

US futures                                         

Dow futures -0.05%, S&P futures 0.11%  & Nasdaq futures -0.14%

In Europe

-FTSE 0.17% & DAX -0.40%

• Stocks muted ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium
• US retailer earnings will give clues over the consumer
• Trump will meet Zelensky later today for peace talks
• Oil rises on supply concerns as India halts Russian oil imports

Stocks subdued with Fed rate cut expectations in focus

Stocks are pointing to a subdued open after recent record highs as investors turn their focus to earnings from big box retailers, as well as the annual central bank conference at Jackson Hole, and a meeting between Trump and Zelensky later today.

Trump has indicated that Ukraine will need to give up hopes of taking back Crimea or joining NATO to press ahead with a peace deal with Russia.

U.S. stocks have risen over the past two weeks, helped by interest rate cut expectations and stronger-than-expected earnings.

This week sees the release of updates from Walmart and Home Depot, among other retailers, which will be watched closely for clues as to how the US consumer is faring. Data on Friday showed that retail sales are increasing in line with expectations, but consumer sentiment has taken a hit from rising inflation fears.

Last week, data showed the US CPI inflation was cooler than expected at 2.7% however, PPI data was significantly hotter than expected, pulling Fed rate cut expectations down from 100% post CPI data to 85%.

This week, the key event will be the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium, where Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell is expected to speak and could bring more clarity to the economic outlook and the Fed's policy framework. The market will want to hear dovish vibes from Powell to extend the move higher in stocks.

Corporate news

Palo Alto Networks is rising 0.4% and the cybersecurity firm is expected to report its July quarter returns after the closing bell.

Novo Nordisk rose 3.8% after the drugmaker received US approval for its weight loss drug, which will be used to treat a serious liver condition.

United Health is rising 2.8% adding to Friday's 12% gains, following Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, which took a substantial stake in the healthcare company.

S&P 500 forecast – technical analysis

The S&P 500 rebounded off the rising trendline at 6227, rising to a record high of 6487 last week. The price has eased back slightly and is hovering around 6440, the July high. Monemtum shows signs of slowing. Should bullish momentum pick up, buyers will look to rise above 6487 to fresh record highs, bringing 6500 into focus. On the downside, the 20 SMA is at 6375, offering modest support. Below here, 6300 comes into play. It takes a move below 6225 to create a lower low.

FX markets – USD rises, EUR/USD falls

The USD is rising, recovering from losses last week as the market looks to geopolitical developments and Fed speak. Fed rate cut expectations have fallen from almost 100% last week to 85% after hotter PPI data. Fed Powell’s speech this week will be a key catalyst for the USD.

The EUR/USD is falling ahead of the Trump-Zelensky meeting. Any sense of a ceasefire and falling energy prices could lower inflation in the region further. Eurozone PMI data will be in focus after Q2 GDP was just 0.1% QoQ.

The GBP/USD is holding steady at 1.3550 ahead of a busy week. UK CPI data and BoE Governor Andrew Bailey speaking at the Jackson Hole Symposium could provide further clues over the timing of the next BoE rate cut. The market is pricing in another 25 bps reduction in February.

Oil rises on supply worries, as India halts Russian imports

Oil prices rose after White House trade advisor Peter Navarro reported that India's purchases of Russian crude oil had halted. The developments fuel worries of tighter supply, even as the prospects of peace in Ukraine brighten slightly.

The market will be watching for clues from a meeting later today between U.S. President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky as they attempt to broker a peace deal to end the Russian war.

Natural gas prices fell 3% ahead of talks between Trump and Putin on Friday, and dropped further at the start of the week—a ceasefire in Ukraine to reduce the risk premium on energy prices.