US Dollar, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, Gold, Oil Weekly Technical Outlook
Sr. Technical Strategist Michael Boutros highlights the levels that matter on the USD Majors and commodity charts into the weekly open.
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Weekly Technical Trade Levels on USD Majors, Commodities & Stocks
- USD technical trade setups we are tracking this week
- Next Weekly Strategy Webinar: Monday, January 26 at 8:30am ET
- Review the latest Video Updates or Stream Live on my YouTube playlist
In this webinar we take an in-depth look at the technical trade levels for the US Dollar (DXY), Euro (EUR/USD), British Pound (GBP/USD), Australian Dollar (AUD/USD), Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD), Japanese Yen (USD/JPY), Swiss Franc (USD/CHF), Gold (XAU/USD), Silver (XAG/USD), Crude Oil (WTI), and Bitcoin (BTC/USD). These are the levels that matter on the technical charts into the weekly open.
US Dollar Price Chart – USD 240min (DXY)
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; DXY on TradingView
Notes: The Dollar Index broke below a major pivot zone today at 98.68/76- a region defined by the August high-day close (HDC), the May low, and the 38.2% retracement of the November decline. The decline was halted in early US trade at the objective yearly open at 98.23. Note that the lower parallel of a proposed descending pitchfork converges on this threshold over the next few days and a daily close below would be needed to fuel the next leg of this decline. Subsequent support is eyed at the 98-handle backed by the 2018 high and the 61.8% retracement of the September rally at 97.71/81- look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Initial resistance is now eyed back at 98.68/76 with bearish invalidation now set to the 61.8% retracement of the recent decline at 99.02.
Bottom line: A break of the late-December uptrend threatens a larger setback in the Dollar in the days ahead. From a trading standpoint, rallies should be limited to 98.76 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 98.24 needed to fuel the next leg of this decline. Keep in mind President Trump will be speaking at the annual World Economic Symposium tomorrow in Devos with key US inflation data (PCE) on tap Thursday.
Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD 240min
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView
Notes: AUD/USD broke above last week’s range today with Aussie extending more than 1.2% off the monthly lows. The advance is trading just below initial resistance in early US trade at the 78.6% retracement of the monthly range at 6745. A topside breach / daily close above would expose subsequent resistance objectives at the monthly high at 6767 with the next major technical consideration eyed with the 2024/2023 yearly opens at 6810/17.
Initial support now rests at the 2025 high-close at 6717 with near-term bullish invalidation now raised to the median-line, currently near ~6700. Key support remains unchanged at the monthly range low and the yearly open at 6663/74- a break / close below this zone would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place and a larger trend reversal is underway.
Bottom line: Aussie is attempting to validate a near-term breakout here with price now testing initial resistance. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 6700 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 6745 needed to fuel the next leg of the advance. Keep in mind we get the release of Australia employment data tomorrow with consensus estimates calling for an uptick to 4.4% in the unemployment rate.
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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
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