US Dollar Majors, Gold, Oil, Bitcoin, Equities Weekly Technical Outlook
Sr. Technical Strategist Michael Boutros highlights the levels that matter on the USD Majors, commodities, and equity indices charts this week.
Share this:
Weekly Technical Trade Levels on USD Majors, Commodities & Stocks
- Technical trade setups we are tracking into the start of the week on the USD Majors, commodities, bitcoin, and equity indices.
- Next Weekly Strategy Webinar: Monday, June 8 at 8:30am ET
- Review the latest Video Updates or Stream Live on my YouTube playlist
In this webinar we take an in-depth look at the technical trade levels for the US Dollar (DXY), Euro (EUR/USD), British Pound (GBP/USD), Australian Dollar (AUD/USD), Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD), Japanese Yen (USD/JPY), Swiss Franc (USD/CHF), Gold (XAU/USD), Crude Oil (WTI), and Bitcoin (BTC/USD), and S&P 500 (SPX500), Nasdaq (NDX), and Dow Jones (DJI). These are the levels that matter on the technical charts into the weekly open. The assets are chaptered on the recording for your convenience.
US Dollar Index Price Chart – USD 240min
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; DXY on TradingView
Notes: The U.S. Dollar Index is trading within the confines of an ascending pitchfork extending off the May low with DXY once again approaching near-term resistance at 99.49/52. A topside breach / close above this pivot zone is needed to mark uptrend resumption towards the 2024 low / low-close at 100.15/35- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.
Weekly / monthly open support rests at 99.05 with key support / bullish invalidation at 98.58/68- a region defined by the 200-day moving average, the May low, and the August high-day close (HDC). Losses below this threshold would suggest a more significant high is in place and a larger trend reversal is underway back towards the yearly open at 98.24 and longer-term support at 97.50/65.
Bottom line: The U.S. Dollar is trading just below pivotal resistance into the start of the month, and the focus is on possible price inflection off this zone. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to the 200-day moving average IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a daily close above 99.52 needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.
Keep in mind we get the release of key U.S. employment data this week with ADP employment on Wednesday and Non-Farm Payrolls Friday. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly close here for guidance. Review my latest US Dollar Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term DXY technical trade levels.
Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD 240min
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView
Notes: Euro is trading just above pivotal support at 1.1578/98- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the March advance, the May low, and the January low-close. A break / close below this key zone is needed to mark resumption of the April downtrend towards the lower parallel (currently near ~1.1550s). The next major technical consideration rests at 1.1483/97.
Weekly / monthly open resistance is eyed at 1.1659 and is backed closely by the 38.2% retracement of the April decline at 1.1681 and the 50% retracement at 1.1713. Broader bearish invalidation remains with the yearly 61.8% retracement / yearly open at 1.1731/45.
Bottom line: Euro is carving the weekly opening range just above pivotal support. From a trading standpoint, rallies should be limited to 1.1681 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 1.1578 needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline. Key Eurozone inflation data is on tap tomorrow.
Economic Calendar – Key Data Releases
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
The complete CFD trading experience
Award-winning platforms, competitive spreads, low commissions and dedicated support.
We live and breathe the markets and are dedicated to helping traders realise their ambitions as we continue to set the industry bar.
Economic calendar
Web Trader platform
Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Related articles
USD/CAD shooting star puts September surge on notice
USD/CAD has printed a clear bearish reversal pattern after an extraordinary September surge, but confirmation may depend heavily on how US Treasury yields react to Friday’s payrolls report.
USD/MXN Analysis: Is Super Peso Starting to Fade?
Over recent trading sessions, the Mexican peso has continued to show signs of weakness against the U.S. dollar. This can already be seen in USD/MXN, which has gained more than 1.7% over the last three sessions, highlighting sustained buying pressure in favor of the dollar in the short term.
Canadian Dollar Analysis: USD/CAD Returns to July Highs Ahead of NFP
The Canadian dollar continues to face one of its most challenging environments in recent months when it comes to maintaining strength against the U.S. dollar. The weakness of the Canadian currency is clearly reflected in USD/CAD, which has now recorded nine consecutive bullish sessions and gained more than 1.7% during that period.
StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation.
StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.