Euro Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD Coils Above Critical Support- Decision Time

Euro Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Short-term Trade Levels

• EUR/USD is holding above a key support zone as with the July opening range carved just above.
• The broader April downtrend remains vulnerable while above support – risk for price inflection ahead.
• A break below support would reinforce the bearish outlook while a topside breakout would strengthen the case that a more significant low is in place.
• U.S. CPI and PPI data next week could provide the catalyst for the next directional move.
• Resistance 1.1483/92 (key), 1.1576/78, 1.1646/49- Support 1.1355/60 (key), 1.1276, 1.1214

EUR/USD continues to trade within an increasingly compressed range, with both the weekly and monthly opening ranges developing just above a major support zone. The repeated failure to break lower has left the April downtrend vulnerable near-term, while buyers still need a decisive breakout to suggest a more durable low is in place. With key U.S. inflation data due next week, the stage is set for a move that could determine the pair's next directional trend. Battle lines drawn on the Euro short-term technical charts.

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Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Euro Short-term Technical Outlook we noted that EUR/USD had rebounded nearly 1% off the June low and that, “From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 1.1675 IF EUR/USD is heading lower on this stretch with a close below the weekly open needed to threaten another test of the monthly lows.” Euro broke sharply lower later that day with the decline extending more than 2.9% off the June high before rebounding off confluent support into the close of the month. The July opening range has been carved just above, and the focus is on a breakout in the days ahead with the April downtrend vulnerable while above this pivotal support zone.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at Euro price action shows EUR/USD holding a tight range this week, just below the median line. Key support rests with the yearly low-day close (LDC) and the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 advance at 1.1355/60. A break / daily close below this threshold would mark a break of the monthly opening range and threaten resumption of the May downtrend toward subsequent support objectives at the 2023 high at 1.1275 and the 2024 high at 1.1214- both levels of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.

Resistance is eyed at 1.1483/92- a region defined by the 1.618% extension of the April decline and the November low-day close (LDC). Noe that channel resistance extending off the May high (red) converges on this level early next week and a breach / daily close above would be needed to validate a breakout of the July opening range and a suggest a more significant low is in place / a larger reversal is underway. Subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the May / January lows at 1.1576/78 and the 200-day moving average and the 61.8% retracement of the April decline at 1.1646/49.

Bottom line: The weekly opening range is preserved within the broader monthly opening range, just above support. Look for the breakout to offer guidance here in the days ahead. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 1.1492 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 1.1355 needed to fuel the next leg of the decline.

The focus next week shifts to the release of June U.S. inflation data, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) due Tuesday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday. Following Chair Warsh's renewed commitment to restoring inflation to the Fed's 2% target, the reports will be closely watched for clues on the future path of U.S. monetary policy. A stronger-than-expected inflation reading would reinforce expectations for additional Fed tightening, supporting Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar while increasing downside risks for EUR/USD. Conversely, softer inflation data could temper expectations for further policy tightening, weighing on the greenback and providing scope for a broader recovery in the euro. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly closes for guidance. Review my latest Euro Technical Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term EUR/USD trade levels.

Key EUR/USD Economic Data Releases

 

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex