US Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) Report Preview (JUN 2025)
The US is expected to add 110K jobs in June, while the Unemployment Rate is seen widening to 4.3% from 4.2% during the same period.
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US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)
The US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report showed a 139K rise in May amid forecasts for a 130K print, while Average Hourly Earnings unexpectedly held steady at 3.9% during the same period.
US Economic Calendar – June 6
A deeper look at the report showed the Unemployment Rate printing at 4.2% for the third consecutive month even as the Labor Force Participation Rate narrowed to 62.4% from 62.6% in April.
At the same time, the update from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that ‘employment continued to trend up in health care, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance,’ but went onto say that ‘the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for March was revised down by 65,000, from +185,000 to +120,000, and the change for April was revised down by 30,000, from +177,000 to +147,000.’
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EUR/USD Chart – 15 Minute
Chart Prepared by David Song, Senior Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView
The better-than-expected NFP report led to a bullish reaction in the US Dollar with EUR/USD slipping to a fresh session low (1.1372), but the market reaction was short-lived as the exchange rate closed at 1.1396. The weakness in the US Dollar carried into the following week as EUR/USD closed at 1.1550.
Looking ahead, the US is expected to add 110K jobs in June, while the Unemployment Rate is seen widening to 4.3% from 4.2% during the same period.
With that said, a further expansion in employment may generate a bullish reaction in the US Dollar as it encourages the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates on hold, but a softer-than-expected NFP report may produce headwinds for the Greenback as it fuels speculation for an imminent Fed rate-cut.
Additional Market Outlooks
EUR/USD Pulls Back While RSI Holds in Overbought Zone
Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Eyes November High
British Pound Forecast: GBP/USD Coils Ahead of July
Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Tumbles Toward June Low
--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist
Follow on Twitter at @DavidJSong
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