Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Box Breakout Building at Support

Australian Technical Forecast: AUD/USD Weekly Trade Levels

• Australian Dollar holds technical support for sixth consecutive week
• AUD/USD monthly opening-range intact- breakout pending
• Resistance 6500, 6607, 6657/63– Support 6381/93 (key), ~6300, 6200/10

The Australian Dollar has been defending multi-month support for six-consecutive weeks. Despite broad based strength in the US Dollar, AUD/USD has remained within the confines of the September opening-range and the focus is on a breakout in the weeks ahead. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/USD weekly technical chart.

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Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Australian Dollar Technical Forecast we noted that a five-week decline had taken, “Aussie into a key technical confluence at multi-year slope support. Bears may be vulnerable while above 6380. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops- rallies should be limited to 6607 IF price is heading for a break here with a close below tis support zone needed to mark resumption.” The outlook remains unchanged more than a month later with AUD/USD holding within the September opening-range, just above support. We’re on breakout watch.

Key support steady at 6381/93- a region defined by the October weekly reversal-close and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2022 advance (also converges on the 2020 trendline) . A break / weekly close below this threshold would be needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend towards the March slope (currently ~6300) and key support at 6200/10- a region defined by the 100% extension of the yearly decline, the 2022 low-week close and the 2008 low close.

Initial weekly resistance is eyed at the 65-handle and is backed by the May low-week close at 6607. Broader bearish invalidation now lowered to the 52-week moving average / 38.2% retracement of the yearly range at 6657/63- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Bottom line: The September opening-range is intact just above multi-month support- look to the breakout for guidance here. From a trading standpoint, the bears remain vulnerable near-term while above 6381- ultimately, we’re looking for an exhaustion high while below 6663 with a close below this key support pivot needed to fuel the next leg lower in price. I’ll publish an updated Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

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