The week begins with a positive bias in Bitcoin’s price action. During the session, the cryptocurrency has posted gains of more than 5%, with price returning to the $70,000 area in the short term.
Buying pressure has managed to emerge despite rising uncertainty stemming from the conflict in the Middle East. This suggests that the market may be viewing the crypto sector as a temporary alternative safe haven compared to traditional markets. This dynamic has allowed demand to regain relevance in the short term. If confidence and on-chain activity continue to increase, more consistent buying pressure could persist in the coming sessions.
Is the temporary safe-haven narrative returning?
The most relevant fundamental event of the week has been the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East following coordinated attacks by Israel and the United States against strategic targets in Iran, followed by military retaliation from Iran.
Initially, it was expected that risk appetite would deteriorate broadly, affecting assets such as Bitcoin. However, during the session, BTC showed a notable recovery, unlike other risk markets. This could be interpreted as investors seeking alternative assets amid heightened uncertainty.
Institutional activity has also begun to show signs of recovery. The Open Interest indicator, which measures total open positions in Bitcoin futures markets, rebounded to approximately $21.9 billion, after closing the previous week below $20 billion. This increase, combined with the recent price rebound, suggests that a significant portion of new positions may be leaning toward the buying side.
Source: Cryptoquant
In this context, the recent increase in activity and appetite may be associated with a perception of Bitcoin as a temporary safe haven amid geopolitical escalation. If this dynamic continues, it could support more consistent buying pressure in the short term.
Confidence attempts to recover
The Fear and Greed Index for cryptocurrencies has rebounded toward the 15-point area after previously hovering near 5 points. Although the index remains in “extreme fear” territory, it is beginning to show a slight recovery in short-term sentiment.
Source: Coinmarketcap
If the indicator manages to consolidate a more sustained recovery, it could help stabilize demand within the crypto market and reinforce stronger buying pressure in Bitcoin in the coming sessions.
Technical outlook for Bitcoin
Source: StoneX, Tradingview
- Recent recovery remains insufficient to break the downtrend: Despite the recent rebound, bullish price movements remain insufficient to invalidate the long-standing downward trendline that has dominated the chart for several months. Structurally, the prevailing technical pattern continues to be bearish. While the recovery may support a more visible short-term buying bias, it is not yet strong enough to confirm a structural shift toward an uptrend.
- RSI: The RSI shows a notable positive slope and is approaching a break above the neutral 50 level, suggesting that bullish momentum is beginning to gain traction over the past 14 sessions. If this dynamic continues, it could reinforce short-term buying pressure.
- MACD: The MACD presents a similar scenario, with the histogram oscillating above the zero line. This reflects that short-term moving averages are beginning to tilt toward a more defined bullish bias, potentially signaling stronger buying dominance in upcoming sessions.
Key levels:
- $77,000 – Key resistance: one aligned with the 50-period moving average. A sustained move above this level could strengthen the buying bias and begin to challenge the prevailing bearish structure, potentially opening the door to the formation of a more consistent short-term upward trend.
- $70,000 – Near-term barrier: Key psychological level and immediate resistance. If price consolidates above this area, it could eliminate part of the recent indecisive bias and favor more consistent buying pressure in the coming sessions.
- $64,000 – Key support: Area of recent lows and the most relevant downside barrier. Sustained moves below this level would restore dominance to the broader downward trend in the weeks ahead.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst
Follow him on: @julianpineda25
