Risk appetite has improved noticeably this week following last week’s bout of bearish price action across major indices and cryptocurrencies. Yet again, the dip has been swiftly bought up. The major US indices are edging back towards their all-time highs, while several European benchmarks have already pushed into record territory. With sentiment turning positive, commodity-linked currencies have also performed well, and cryptocurrencies have joined the rebound. Bitcoin is now trading around the $105,000 mark, while Ether has climbed to roughly $3,500. The uplift in sentiment has been fuelled partly by renewed hopes of a US government reopening and expectations of global interest rate cuts. As far as crypto is concerned, the key question now is whether Bitcoin has formed a major low around the $100,000 level. For the time being, that level continues to act as strong support — and as long as it holds, the bullish Bitcoin forecast will remain intact and the path of least resistance for Ether will also remain to the upside.
Bitcoin defends $100K support
Bitcoin attempted to break below the $100,000 level on three separate occasions last week, but each time, the move failed to sustain. Daily closes consistently held above that line in the sand — meaning Bitcoin hasn’t closed below $100,000 since breaking above it back on 8 May. Despite the recent choppy and sideways price action, the broader trend therefore remains bullish.
Immediate resistance sits between $107,250 and $110,000, a zone that has previously acted as both support and resistance. A daily close above this area could confirm a breakout and potentially spark fresh technical buying.
Traders should also keep an eye on the 200-day moving average, often seen as a gauge of the longer-term trend. Although price action currently sits slightly below it, the moving average itself is still sloping higher — a positive sign. We saw a similar setup between March and April, when Bitcoin briefly dipped under the 200-day average before reclaiming it in late April, triggering a strong rally that pushed prices significantly higher. A repeat of that pattern can’t be ruled out.
On the downside, the $100,000 support remains crucial. If Bitcoin were to close below it on a daily basis, that could mark a turning point — potentially prompting some liquidation of long positions and a deeper correction towards the next key support around $85,000, where Bitcoin last staged a meaningful rebound back in April.
Ether breaks back above 200 MA
Ether has shown some promising signs of resilience. After several failed attempts to break below its 200-day moving average of $3350, it has now managed to reclaim that level which is a constructive technical development, provided it can continue to hold above it.
The next major resistance on the ETHUSD chart lies around $3,600, an area that previously offered support before being broken in early November. A sustained move back above this level would suggest that the prior breakdown was a false move — a trap for sellers — and could pave the way for a sharp short squeeze higher.
Should that occur, the next upside targets to watch are $3,800, $3,900, and $4,000 in the near term. Ultimately, I still see the potential for Ether to reach around $5,000 in the coming weeks and months, but for that bullish scenario to unfold, we’ll need to see stronger momentum and a confirmed break above resistance. For now, the early signs are encouraging, albeit still tentative.
Source for all charts used in this article: TradingView.com
-- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst
Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R
