- Crude oil forecast shifts as Israel-Iran ceasefire eases supply fears
- Key support levels now in focus following sharp selloff
- Market focus returns to fundamentals and away from geopolitics
Crude oil prices extended their sharp falls from the day before, following news that Israel and Iran have agreed to a ceasefire brokered by the United States. Prices sold off a further 4% today, adding to the 9% drop the day before. From its highest point on Monday, WTI was down 17% at its lowest so far in today’s session. The massive slide comes following the sudden de-escalation of Middle East tensions, which has significantly reduced – and perhaps removed – the geopolitical risk premium that had been priced into oil in recent weeks. Supply fears in the Strait of Hormuz didn’t come to fruition. But any surprise flare ups in the conflict now could potentially lead to another spike in prices. However, the focus will now turn on the fundamentals. Rising supply had been a factor behind the prior slide in oil prices, before they bottomed in April. While Iran can now continue to export oil to China (like they have been doing all along), one could argue that without any major surprise production hikes from the OPEC+ group, prices could bottom out soon. After all, they were already on the rise before the recent flare up in the Middle East conflict. So, after the big drop, and in light of what was just mentioned, the crude oil forecast is not necessarily as bearish as the chart may have you believe.
Crude oil forecast: WTI drops to test key support zone
Source: TradingView.com
At the time of writing, WTI was testing a key support zone between $63.60 and $65.00 — the latter being a psychologically and technically important area. This zone previously acted as resistance before the recent conflict and was the launchpad for the rally that preceded geopolitical tensions.
Now that the conflict premium has been wiped out, the crude oil forecast will likely hinge on market fundamentals once again. The big question traders are asking: if oil was already trending higher before the war, can it now resume that upward momentum from current levels?
Key resistance levels to watch
Technically, yesterday’s low at $67 handle is the first upside level to watch for potential resistance. If prices manage to break above that, the 200-day moving average around $68.50 becomes the next key target. Beyond that, the $70 mark looms as another major psychological barrier.
Final thoughts
For now, crude remains under pressure, but the chart suggests this could soon pause before a possible rebound. Whether that potential rebound materializes will depend on how well the market absorbs the shifting narrative — from geopolitical tension back to demand-supply fundamentals. For now, traders seem happy to keep selling oil. But if that double bottom was a genuine one back April-May at around $55, then dip buyers should start to show up around current levels. In any case, the bulls will now need to see a bit of bullish reversal for confirmation before stepping in.
-- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst
Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R
