Weekly Technical Trade Levels on USD Majors, Commodities & Stocks
- USD technical trade setups we are tracking this week
- Next Weekly Strategy Webinar: Monday, January 5 at 8:30am ET
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In this webinar we take an in-depth look at the technical trade levels for the US Dollar (DXY), Euro (EUR/USD), British Pound (GBP/USD), Australian Dollar (AUD/USD), Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD), Japanese Yen (USD/JPY), Swiss Franc (USD/CHF), Gold (XAU/USD), Silver (XAG/USD), Crude Oil (WTI), S&P 500 (SPX500), Nasdaq (NDX), and Dow Jones (DJI), and Bitcoin (BTC/USD). These are the levels that matter on the technical charts into the weekly open.
US Dollar Price Chart – USD Daily (DXY)
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; DXY on TradingView
Notes: The Dollar Index is poised to snap a three-day winning streak with a rally of more than 1.1% off the December low failing to hold above confluent resistance today at 98.69/76- a region defined by the August high-day close (HDC), the May low, and the 38.2% retracement of the November decline. Yearly-open support rests at 98.23 with key support unchanged at the 2018 high and the 61.8% retracement of the September advance at 97.71/81. A break / close below this threshold would threaten resumption of the multi-month downtrend with subsequent support objectives eyed at the 2025 low-day close at 97.02.
A top-side breach / close above this key pivot zone would be needed to suggest a more significant near-term low is in place and a larger recovery is underway with subsequent resistance seen at the 200-day moving average (currently ~98.96) and the 61.8% retracement at 99.38- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.
Bottom line: The weekly opening-range is taking shape just below resistance into the start of the month / year with key employment data on tap this week (ADP Wednesday & Non-Farm Payrolls Friday). From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to the yearly open IF the bulls are going to make a move here with a close above the 200-DMA needed to charge the next leg of the advance. Ultimately, losses below 97.71 would be needed mark downtrend resumption for the bears.
Bitcoin Price Chart – BTC/USD Daily
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; BTC/USD on TradingView
Notes: Bitcoin has broken the October downtrend with the BTC/USD extending nearly 11.5% off the late-December low. The rally is testing resistance today at 93,347-94,236- a region defined by the 2025 yearly open, the May low, and the 61.8% retracement of the 2025 range. Note that the December opening-range remains intact and the focus is on a breakout in the weeks ahead for guidance here.
A topside breach exposes the June low / 38.2% retracement of the October decline at 98,008/240 backed by the objective July low at 105,130. Yearly open support now rests at 87,496 and is backed closely by the December low-day close (LDC) / 61.8% retracement of the November rally at 85,929-86,291. Ultimately, a close below the 2025 low-week close (LWC) / 38.2% retracement of the 2022 advance at 83,712-84,000 would be needed to put the bears back in control.
Bottom line: The Bitcoin breakout is now testing the upper bounds of the December range- risk for exhaustion / price inflection into this zone. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to the yearly open IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above this key pivot zone needed to suggest a more significant low is in place and a larger trend reversal is underway.
Economic Calendar – Key USD Data Releases
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
