US Dollar Forecast: USD/CHF Vulnerable as RSI Holds in Oversold Zone

feature image

US Dollar Outlook: USD/CHF

USD/CHF extends the decline from the start of the week to keep the Relative Strength Index (RSI) in oversold territory, and the move below 30 in the RSI is likely to be accompanied by a further depreciation in the exchange rate like the price action from last year.

US Dollar Forecast: USD/CHF Vulnerable as RSI Holds in Oversold Zone

USD/CHF holds below channel support after clearing the December low (0.8736), and the exchange rate may continue to register fresh yearly lows as the descending channel from earlier this year remains intact.

Join David Song for the Weekly Fundamental Market Outlook webinar.

David provides a market overview and takes questions in real-time. Register Here

 

With that said, USD/CHF may attempt to test the October low (0.8432) should it extend the decline from the weekly high (0.8674), but the RSI may show the bearish momentum abating if the oscillator struggles to hold below 30.

USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily

USDCHF Daily Chart 04082025

Chart Prepared by David Song, Senior Strategist; USD/CHF Price on TradingView

  • USD/CHF appears to be stuck in a narrow range after slipping to a fresh yearly low (0.8451) at the start of week, but a close below the 0.8550 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) to 0.8590 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) region may lead to a test of the October low (0.8432).
  • Failure to defend the 2024 low (0.8375) opens up 0.8360 (100% Fibonacci extension), with the next area of interest coming in around the 2023 low (0.8333).
  • At the same time, lack of momentum to close below the 0.8550 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) to 0.8590 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) region may push USD/CHF back towards 0.8700 (61.8% Fibonacci extension), with the next area of interest coming in around 0.8770 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) to 0.8800 (50% Fibonacci extension).

Additional Market Outlooks

AUD/USD Selloff Persists as US Threatens Additional 50% Tariff for China

Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Completes Cup-and-Handle Formation

GBP/USD Pulls Back to Keep RSI Out of Overbought Zone

Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Selloff Persists as PM Carney Pledges to Fight Trump Tariffs

--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist

Follow on Twitter at @DavidJSong

Get our guide to central banks and interest rates in 2025

Related tags: trade ideas david song

Open an account in minutes

Experience award-winning platforms with fast and secure execution.

Web Trader platform

Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Economic Calendar