Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Rally Tests Make-or-Break Resistance

Australian Dollar Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Short-term Trade Levels

• AUD/USD has rallied more than 2% from the June low with a four-week rally now testing confluent resistance.
• The recovery is challenging the upper boundary of the May downtrend, where multiple technical barriers converge.
• A sustained break above resistance would strengthen the case that a more significant low is in place and shift the focus toward higher upside objectives.
• Failure to clear this barrier would keep the broader downtrend intact and leave the recent advance vulnerable to a renewed reversal.
• Resistance 7003/23 (key), 7082, 7120- Support ~6940s, 6919, 6880/89 (key)

AUD/USD is attempting to register a fourth consecutive weekly advance after rebounding more than 2% from the June lows, bringing the pair back into a major technical inflection zone. The recovery is now testing the upper bounds of a multi-month downtrend, where multiple resistance levels converge. Whether buyers can force a decisive breakout—or sellers regain control at this barrier—should provide important clues on the broader directional outlook heading into next week's FOMC meeting. Battle lines drawn on the Aussie short-term technical charts.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this AUD/USD technical setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook we noted that AUD/USD was , “trading just above downtrend support with price marking an outside-day reversal candle into the close of the month. Risk for price inflection into the July open. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 7023 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 6822 needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline.” Aussie rallied more than 2.3% off the June lows with the advance extending into pivotal resistance last week at the upper bounds of the May downtrend. Note that former slope support from the 2025 uptrend also converges on this zone and the immediate focus is on a reaction at this key barrier with the near-term long-bias vulnerable while below.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at Aussie price action shows AUD/USD trading within the confines of an embedded ascending channel (red) with the bulls challenging key resistance today at 7003/23- a region defined by the 100% extension of the May decline, the 61.8% retracement of the late-March rally, the 100% extension of the late-June advance, and the 38.2% retracement of the decline off the yearly high. A topside breach / daily close above this threshold is needed to suggest a more significant low was registered last month and that a larger trend reversal is underway. Subsequent resistance objectives are eyed at the 1.618% extension at 7082 and the 61.8% retracement at 7120.

Initial support rests at the highlight slope confluence near ~6940s and is backed closely by the July open at 6919. Key support rest with the 1.618% extension of the May decline, the monthly range low, and the 200-day moving average at 6880/89. A break / daily close below this threshold would threaten resumption of the multi-month downtrend with subsequent support seen at the 50% retracement of the 2025 advance and the March low at 6821/33- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

 

Bottom line: Aussie is testing confluent downtrend resistance this week with the weekly opening-range taking shape just below. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops – losses would need to be limited to the weekly low IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 7023 needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.

The economic docket is rather light this week with the S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI on tap Friday. Next week traders will be focused on the highly anticipated FOMC rate decision as we get another update from Warch & Co. on the current state of the economy and the path for monetary policy. Stay nimble here and watch the weekly close for guidance. Review my latest Australian Dollar Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.

Key AUD/USD Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

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Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex