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Canadian Dollar Technical Outlook: USD/CAD 2% Rally Puts Yearly Highs Back in Play

A sharp reversal from critical support has revived USD/CAD bulls, with a major resistance test now in focus that could determine the fate of the recovery.

Michael Boutros
Michael Boutros

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Canadian Dollar Technical Outlook: USD/CAD 2% Rally Puts Yearly Highs Back in Play 11 12 2026

Canadian Dollar Technical Outlook: USD/CAD Multi-Timeframe Analysis

USD/CAD technical analysis shows the pair rallying nearly 2.4% off a major pivot zone as Federal Reserve hike bets lift the U.S. dollar. Michael Boutros, StoneX Media Senior Market Analyst, breaks down the USD/CAD rebound across the weekly, daily and near-term charts. The rally now meets a dense cluster of Fibonacci retracement resistance and weekly closing levels that has capped the advance in the near term. Markets price a Fed rate hike in December as all but certain and an 88% chance of a second hike by March, keeping U.S. dollar strength in focus against the Canadian dollar. The pitchfork structure on the chart separates a routine pullback from a deeper washout and marks the break that would challenge the broader uptrend. U.S. producer price index data, jobless claims and a lineup of Fed speakers add event risk for the U.S. dollar and the Canadian dollar alike.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

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