Crude Oil Weekly Outlook: Back to 2025 Lows
Chinese tariffs are back in the headlines, along with ceasefire deals and OPEC supply cut unwinds. Crude oil prices took another dip, mimicking the April 2025 sell-off. Will crude prices hold above 55 again?
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Key Events
- Renewed tariff tensions between the U.S. and China, alongside Middle East ceasefire headlines, are pressuring crude prices below 60.
- Daily oversold conditions on crude oil drop to levels last seen in April 2025.
- OPEC supply cut unwinds add surplus risks into 2026.
The scenario of crude oil prices dropping below the 60 mark—supported by OPEC oversupply concerns and tariff war tensions between the world’s two largest economies—appears to be back in play. OPEC’s latest unwind of 137,000 barrels, although smaller in magnitude than previous ones, still contributes to increased market supply amid renewed tariff fears between the U.S. and China.
However, sentiment pricing is being watched closely for any quick rebounds, given that geopolitical uncertainty still poses risks tied to Russia–Ukraine tensions and Trump’s sanctions on crude as new tariff deals develop. Tariff threats are expected to dominate headlines until favorable trade agreements emerge, potentially realigning crude oil into another uptrend in line with future growth trends.
Crude Oil Outlook: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Tradingview
Following the June 2025 peak, crude oil prices have been moving in a sideways-to-bearish consolidation, respecting the bounds of a parallel channel and recently landing near the 58 support. The 58 level aligns with the 0.5 Fibonacci extension of the trend defined by 78.70 (June 2025), 61.40 (August 2025), and 64.80 (September 2025).
A clean break below 58 may open the way for another leg down toward the 0.618 extension at 56. On the upside, a clean hold above 58 could realign gains toward 60 and 63.
Crude Oil Outlook: Monthly Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Tradingview
From a monthly time-frame perspective, the overall move for crude oil since the 2022 peak is likely a corrective phase within the broader 2020–2022 uptrend. Monthly oversold levels are now realigning with those last seen in 2022, suggesting a possible long-term rebound for crude prices from the 55–49 zone. This area also aligns with the 0.618 retracement of the 2020–2022 rally.
Market sentiment toward fully pricing in OPEC oversupply risks—alongside renewed tariff fears similar to the April low scenario—remains under watch for potential reversal signals, which could present long-term bullish rebound opportunities on the crude oil chart.
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
Follow on X: @Rh_waves
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