DAX Consolidates Near Highs | Markets Hold Firm Amid US Shutdown

Market Overview

US equities were mostly firmer despite the ongoing government shutdown, which entered its second week with no signs of resolution. Gains were led by Consumer Discretionary, Technology, and Utilities, while Real Estate, Consumer Staples, and Health Care lagged.

• S&P 500: +0.36% to 6,740
• Nasdaq 100: +0.78% to 24,979
• Dow Jones: -0.14% to 46,695
• Russell 2000: +0.41% to 2,486

Europe

• France: Political instability persists after PM Lecornu’s resignation; final talks ongoing.
• ECB’s Lagarde: Disinflation phase “over”; policy remains data-dependent with no rate path precommitment.

DAX Remains around key resistance zone

The Germany 40 (4H) continues to consolidate after a recent rally towards the 24,510 resistance area. Price has softened to 24,350–24,300, and is finding support near the 20-EMA and mid-Bollinger Band. This pullback remains within the uptrend that began from the late-September base near 23,300. The RSI (~56) shows that momentum has cooled from overbought territory, and the MACD has crossed lower, reflecting a pause rather than a breakdown. Short-term tone: neutral-to-constructive consolidation.

Trade & Tariffs

• US President Trump announced a 25% tariff on all imported medium and heavy-duty trucks, effective Nov 1.
• Japan will assess details and respond accordingly.
• Trump held “very good” trade calls with Brazil’s President Lula and plans a visit to Brazil.
• The White House confirmed Trump will meet Canada’s PM Carney (Tuesday) and Finland’s President (Thursday); trade discussions are expected.
• Tariff rebates are under discussion but undecided.
• The EU is preparing to impose 50% tariffs on global steel imports exceeding 2013 quota levels (FT).
• White House AI adviser Sacks argued against selling advanced AI chips to China, calling Nvidia CEO Huang a strategic national asset.

US Politics & Economy

• Fed’s Schmid: Inflation remains too high but policy is “slightly restrictive.”
• Government shutdown negotiations stalled; both Republican and Democrat bills failed in the Senate.
• Trump warned layoffs may follow if shutdown persists and reiterated willingness to negotiate on healthcare subsidies once the government reopens.
• Schumer (D) said Democrats are ready to work with Trump but no negotiations yet.
• Trump threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act if unrest escalates; 300 Illinois National Guard members have been federally mobilised.
• A federal judge refused to block the Guard deployment.

APAC Session

• Trading was mixed amid multiple holiday closures (China, HK, South Korea).
• Nikkei 225 hit record highs, boosted by optimism over incoming PM Takaichi and strong household spending data.
• ASX 200 fell on weak consumer confidence.
• US and European futures were subdued amid shutdown uncertainty.

FX:

• USD held gains; JPY remained weak above 150.
• EUR pressured by French political uncertainty.
• GBP steady amid lack of domestic drivers.
• AUD/NZD rangebound ahead of the RBNZ rate decision tomorrow (split views between 25bps or 50bps cut).

Fixed Income:

• USTs flat; supply concerns linger.
• Bunds softer ahead of German data.
• JGBs firmed after strong 30-year auction results.

Commodities:

• Oil rangebound after OPEC+ decisions.
• Gold near record highs; Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 target to $4,900/oz (prev. $4,300).
• Copper steady amid muted China activity.

Crypto:

• Bitcoin eased after hitting a record above $126,000.

Geopolitics

Middle East:
Trump said a Gaza deal is close, with Turkey, Iran, and Jordan expressing support. Negotiations ended “positively” per Egyptian media.

Russia-Ukraine:
Trump is reviewing Tomahawk missile deliveries to Ukraine; EU to restrict Russian diplomats’ movement amid sabotage concerns.

Other:
Trump suspended outreach to Venezuela (NYT).