Euro Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD Reversal Halted at Pivotal Support- Decision Time

Euro Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Short-term Trade Levels

• EUR/USD has declined more than 2.6% from the January highs, with the pullback slowing as price reaches a key confluence support zone tied to the yearly open and January retracements.
• The pair remains within an ascending structure, leaving bears vulnerable while above near-term support- inflection risk rises
• Key event risk ahead with US Non-Farm Payrolls & CPI on tap next week
• Resistance 1.1866/75, 1.1919 (key), 1.2020/42- Support 1.1746/71 (key), 1.1646, 1.1590

EUR/USD is trading just above a pivotal support zone after a sharp pullback from the January highs, with downside momentum slowing as price approaches a key technical threshold. This area has acted as an important reference point within the broader uptrend, placing emphasis on how the market responds in the sessions ahead. A decisive break lower would suggest the correction has further to run, while continued holding above support would keep the focus on a potential stabilization and reassessment of the recent decline. The outcome here is likely to shape near-term direction for the Euro as the market moves into the new month. Battle lines are drawn on the Euro short-term technical charts.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this EUR/USD technical setup and more. Join live Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Euro Short-term Technical Outlook we noted that EUR/USD was trading within the confines of a near-term downtrend off the late-December and that, “From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 1.1703 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below the weekly open needed to fuel the next leg of the decline.” We specifically highlighted key support, “at 1.1590/98- a region defined by the December low, the 100% extension of the late-December decline, and the 61.8% retracement of the November advance. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached.” Euro broke lower later that week with price registering a close low 1.1598 before rebounding sharply higher.

An outside-day reversal off support on January 19 fueled a rally of more than 4.3% with the advance exhausting just ahead of the 2017 swing high at 1.2092 into the close of the month. Euro plunged more than 2.6% off those highs with the decline rebounding off a key support zone today at 1.1746/71- a region define by the objective yearly open and the 61.8% retracement of the January range. The focus is on possible inflection off this zone in the days ahead with the bears vulnerable while above.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at Euro price action shows EUR/USD trading within the confines of an ascending pitchfork extending off the January low with the lower parallel further highlighting near-term support at 1.1746/71. Initial resistance is eyed at the 2025 high close and the monthly high at 1.1866/75- note that the 25% parallel converges on this zone early-next week. A topside breach / close above the 2025 high at 1.1919 is ultimately needed to mark uptrend resumption and fuel another run at the highs with key resistance steady at 1.2020/42- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of the broader 2008 decline and the January high-day close (HDC). Look for a larger reaction here IF reached.

A break / daily close below the yearly open would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place and a larger trend reversal is underway. Subsequent support objectives are eyed at the January low-day close (LDC) at 1.1645 backed by the 200-day moving average (currently ~1.1618), and the December low at 1.1590. Both levels of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.

 

Bottom line: Euro is trading just above confluent support at a multi-week uptrend- looking for a reaction off this zone early in the month. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 1.1919 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a daily close below 1.1746 needed to fuel the next leg of the decline.

Keep in mind we get the release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls report next week with key inflation data (CPI) on tap Friday. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest Euro Weekly Technical Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term EUR/USD trade levels.

Key EUR/USD Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex