FTSE 100 outlook: Investors brace for a busy week

Last week saw the FTSE shake off its short-term bearish spell, and looked set to have another go at that August record just above 9,360, only for a last minute turnaround late in the day on Friday to spoil the bullish party. The index closed lower but still eked out a gain for the week, its second in as many weeks. The index remains a spitting distance away from its record, so the FTSE 100 outlook remains bullish heading into a busy week of economic data, central bank decisions and company earnings.

 

Bullish technical FTSE 100 outlook remains intact

 

Before discussing the macro factors impacting the FTSE 100 outlook, let’s first take a look at the chart:

 

 

In recent days, the UK 100 has bounced cleanly off the 21-day exponential moving average, keeping its short-term bullish bias intact. Short-term support is seen around 9,250, followed by 9,190. If we see the index stay above these key levels in the week ahead, then we will probably break higher, but lose the lower support of 9,150 and a slide back towards the 9,000 handle comes into view. Personally, I’d lean bullish while we hold above that support.

 

Key interim resistance sits at 9,305 — previously support on intraday charts. A sustained break above this level could spark renewed buying momentum towards the all-time high near 9,360.

 

Here’s a refined rephrasing of your text for improved flow, clarity, and conciseness, while keeping the professional market commentary tone intact:

 

 

 

FOMC: Rate Cut Priced In, Focus on Forward Guidance

 

The coming week is packed with central bank meetings, with the Fed’s decision on Wednesday, September 17, being the highlight. Signs of slowing consumer demand and a weakening labour market justify further easing, even as CPI remains elevated at 2.9% and tariffs threaten to keep it sticky. The Fed is widely expected to deliver a 25bp cut, making the move itself unlikely to jolt the US dollar. Instead, market reaction will hinge on the Fed’s tone—its forward guidance in the statement, updated dot plots, and Powell’s press conference will shape expectations for additional policy easing later this year.

 

FTSE 100 Outlook: BoE Decision in Focus

 

The Bank of England announces policy on Thursday, September 18, following last month’s deeply divided vote to cut rates by 25bp. This time, a hold is expected. Recent stronger data—including robust retail sales, upbeat PMIs, and accelerating CPI at 3.8%—combined with the later autumn budget, have pushed expectations for the next cut from November to December. A hawkish-leaning MPC would likely cap the FTSE’s gains, while the vote split will be key in gauging divisions. If only two or fewer members back a cut, sterling could rally. As for forward guidance, no major shift in tone is anticipated just a month after the previous meeting, unless wage or CPI data earlier in the week deliver major surprises.

 

UK Economy Stagnates in July

 

Ahead of the BoE rate decision, we saw evidence of UK economy stagnating. Economic data released Friday morning painted a mixed-to-weak picture, as output flatlined in July, as expected, but the surprise came from a 1.3% drop in manufacturing production, where a modest rise had been anticipated. Gains in construction output and a slightly stronger services sector were not enough to lift the pound, nor did the news provide a reason for equities to rally. Despite the soft data, the Bank of England is unlikely to cut rates again until December. This delay should offer support for sterling, potentially limiting the FTSE’s upside in the near term.

 

 

-- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst

Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R