Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook: USD/CHF Coils Above Key Support
USD/CHF is trading within a multi-week consolidation pattern, just above key support with NFPs on tap. Battle lines drawn on the short-term technical charts.
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Swiss Franc Technical Forecast: USD/CHF Short-term Trade Levels
- USD/CHF trading within multi-week, falling wedge formation just above key support
- USD/CHF breakout pending- Swiss inflation / US Non-Farm Payrolls on tap
- Resistance 8057 (key), 8101, 8123- Support 8007, 7987 (key), 7911
Swiss Franc is trading within a contractionary range into the monthly open with USD/CHF rebounding off key support early in the week. The focus is on a breakout in the days ahead with key U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls on tap Friday. Battles lines drawn on the USD/CHF short-term technical charts.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this USD/CHF setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF Daily
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In last month’s Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook we noted that USD/CHF had broken out of a multi-month downtrend and that, “From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 7973 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 8186 needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.” USD/CHF plunged nearly 2.3% off the August highs to register an intraday low at 7986 before rebounding into the September open. The focus is on a breakout of this August consolidation range (falling wedge pattern) with price testing initial resistance today at the 38.2% retracement of the August decline at 8057- looking for a reaction off this mark in the days ahead.
Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF 240min
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView
Notes: A closer look at Swisse price action shows USD/CHF testing the upper bounds of the multi-week consolidation with price holding just below resistance into the open of New York trade on Wednesday. The weekly opening-range is now set and we’re looking for a breakout for guidance here.
Weekly open support rests at 8007 with key support steady at 7987- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the July rally and the 100% extension of the near-term decline. A break / close below this threshold would suggest a more significant high is in place / a larger breakdown is underway. Subsequent support seen at the yearly low-day close (LDC) at 7911 and 7872/82.
A topside breakout of this formation exposes subsequent resistance objectives at the 61.8% retracement at 8101 and the objective August open near 8123. Key resistance remains unchanged at the 50% retracement of the May decline / May low at 8174/85 - look for a larger reaction there IF reached with a breach / close above this threshold needed to mark uptrend resumption. Subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the 61.8% retracement near 8246 and the 2023 low at 8333.
Bottom line: USD/CHF is coiling just above critical support, and the focus is on a breakout of this multi-week consolidation in the days ahead. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to the weekly open IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above the late- July trendline needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.
Keep in mind we get the release of Swiss CPI figures and US ADP employment data tomorrow with the Non-Farm Payrolls on tap Friday. Stay nimble into the prints and watch the weekly close for guidance here. Review my latest Swiss Franc Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term USD/CHF technical trade levels.
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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
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