In my last article on Bitcoin, I looked at both a bullish and bearish scenario because frankly, the recovery was in its early stages. That rally lasted into Friday morning at which point a key spot of resistance came into play, as taken from a prior area of support-turned-resistance. And while that initially stalled the move with buyers holding it above 90k, the weekend brought another decisive sell-off and now the cryptocurrency is grasping to get back above the 85k level.
From the four-hour chart, there’s been clear bearish structure since the weekly open in futures but this is also a tough move to chase, as bears haven’t made it very far below the 85k level and the move has been stalled for the past few hours.
Bitcoin Four-Hour Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview
Bitcoin Daily
Further complicating matters for sellers is just how fast the move has already priced-in, and while the 80k level was cleanly defended when bears were pushing breakdowns two weeks ago, it’s the 75k level that marked a major market low back in April.
At the time, stocks were getting hit hard, similar to the initial move that showed on this week’s open, and it was as Trump backed off of tariff implementation back in April that allowed equities to lift; and alongside that, Bitcoin broke out of a falling wedge and then went on to rally until, eventually, finding resistance at the 120k marker.
The question now is whether the context exists for that 75k level to get taken out after it put in such ardent defense at the current 2025 low.
Bitcoin Daily Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview
Bitcoin Short-Term
For sellers that want to jump on the move there’s a couple spots of resistance that remain attractive for bearish continuation scenarios. The 88523-89189 zone is back in-play, and this is a spot of support-turned-resistance that hasn’t yet shown much for resistance since the breakdown. And for those that want to be even more aggressive, there’s a swing at 86665 and, ideally, sellers would defend that level on a pullback above 85k if they’re going to remain aggressive on the push.
Bitcoin Two-Hour Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview
--- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro
