Key Events to Watch
- USDCAD Holds at key 1.3880 resistance
- Nasdaq holds above the 23,200-support
- Markets eye Fed minutes (today) and Powell’s Jackson Hole speech (Friday) to recalibrate rate cut expectations
The upcoming Fed minutes are boosting dollar sentiment and weighing on risk appetite, following a hot PPI print, mild CPI data, and weak labor market figures. This mix has kept inflation risks alive and heightened focus on today’s minutes and Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday.
With the theme “Labor Markets in Transition,” the event comes at a critical market state: consumer confidence is slipping, indices have retreated from record highs, and the dollar has bounced back above 98.
USDCAD is holding firm above the 2025 low at 1.35 and testing the 1.3880 resistance. A break could open the path toward 1.40, while DXY holding above 98 keeps the tone neutral to bullish. A DXY move above 100.20 would strengthen the Dollar’s case for a full rebound from the 96 support.
Meanwhile, Nasdaq — the lead beneficiary of the AI and tech rally — has lost momentum, pulling back toward the 23,200 support after stalling below the 24,000 resistance.
What are the scenarios?
Technical Analysis: Quantifying Uncertainties
USDCAD Outlook: 3-Day Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Tradingview
USDCAD is in a bullish breakout mode, holding firmly above 1.37 and breaking out from a one-month consolidation range. It is now testing the 1.3880 resistance. A clean hold above this level could confirm a breakout toward the 1.40 target — the projected completion of the current pattern.
The 3-day RSI is trending above the neutral 50 level, reinforcing dollar strength. However, with key resistance in sight, A pullback below 1.3840 may revisit the 1.37 support, possibly triggering either a rebound or a deeper move back toward 1.36 and 1.35 (the 2025 lows).
Nasdaq Outlook: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Tradingview
On the daily chart, Nasdaq’s RSI has pulled back to the 50 neutral zone, providing potential support for the recent correction. Price action is holding above the 23,200-support, while the 4-hour RSI is rebounding from oversold conditions.
If 23,200 continues to hold, Nasdaq may recover to test 23,500, 23,700, and potentially 24,100. A confirmed move above these levels could signal renewed momentum toward the 25,000-record. Otherwise, price may enter another consolidation phase.
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
Follow on X: @Rh_waves
