News & analysis

With only a few days left in September, the cryptocurrency market continues to show a constructive short-term outlook. The latest trading week has delivered meaningful gains across most major digital assets and, broadly speaking, the bullish bias remains the dominant force within the market.

Nasdaq strength contrasts with mounting Dow pressure as rising Treasury yields raise the stakes for stocks heading into the monthly close.

After coming under significant pressure in recent weeks, the EUR/USD came off its lows to finish the week on a positive note on Friday, albeit with only a mild rebound. That was not enough to prevent the exchange rate falling for the third consecutive week, as the US dollar and bond yields rallied across the board.

Surging Treasury yields sent a jolt across markets last week but, so far, gold prices have held above the FOMC low. The big question now is whether that can continue and, if not, will bulls show up at $4100 or $4k like they did in June and July?

With September nearing its end, the cryptocurrency market is beginning to show greater caution heading into the close of the week. This comes after a strong start, when prices moved sharply higher on the back of short-covering activity and renewed optimism surrounding potential regulatory developments for the crypto industry.

Strong US growth and hawkish Fed pricing continue to support USD/JPY, while intervention risk appears to be kicking in at lower levels

Earnings from Nike comes as the share price trades at a 12-year low. Micron Technology keeps the AI trade in focus and Carnival suffers from rising fuel costs.

As we headed towards the latter stages of Q3 and into Q4, the Fed had just hiked rates in a hawkish FOMC meeting, while the likes of the ECB and BoJ had also tightened their respective policies. Oil prices remained elevated amid the prolonged US-Iran conflict. Meanwhile, bond yields were breaking out, and the dollar was higher across the board. Yet, remarkably, gold was still holding in the positive territory for the third quarter, even if it had weakened somewhat in September.

EUR/USD enters Q4 at a pivotal inflection point as competing Fed-ECB policy paths and persistent inflation risks collide with major technical support.

There's still an open door for a melt-up in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq but the Dow and Russell 2000 are looking more vulnerable, and until calm hits the Treasuries market there's a higher probability for volatility. The big question is whether that's a next quarter theme or not.

U.S. stocks are rising on Friday after a volatile week that saw a surge in Treasury yields ripple through financial markets.

The year-end tug-of-war is clear: hawkish Fed pricing supports USD/JPY, while intervention risk limits the upside.