Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Breakout Sparks Largest Weekly Surge Since April

Australian Technical Forecast: AUD/USD Weekly Trade Levels

• AUD/USD delivered its largest single-week advance since April, with the breakout driving price near three-year highs
• Aussie rally now approaching its first meaningful hurdle- risk for price inflection into uptrend resistance
• Australia inflation / Fed interest rate decision on tap
• Resistance 7008 (key), 7109/37, 7208/14- Support 6795-6811 (key), 6817, 6674

The Australian Dollar is surging with AUD/USD approaching three-year highs as the bulls attempt to close out a seventh daily advance. A two-week rally of more than 4.4% is now approaching uptrend resistance and places the focus squarely on how the market responds at this threshold. While the broader trend remains constructive, this area represents an important checkpoint for the rally, as a sustained move higher would signal scope for continuation, while a failure here could prompt a period of consolidation or pullback. The reaction around this level should provide valuable guidance on the durability of the advance in the sessions ahead. Battle lines drawn on the AUD/USD weekly technical chart ahead of tomorrow Fed rate decision.  

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Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Australian Dollar Forecast we noted that AUD/USD was approaching uptrend resistance into the start of the month and that, “ losses would need to be limited to 6592 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close a above the median-line needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.” Aussie registered an intraweek low at 6663 that week before rebounding with the bulls posting the largest single-week advance since April last week.

The rally is now poised to mark a seventh-consecutive daily advance with price extending into resistance at the 2024 swing high and the 50% retracement of the 2021 decline at 6942/61. Note that the upper parallel converges on the 100% extension of the November rally just higher at 7008- look for a larger reaction there IF reached with a breach / close above needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance. Subsequent resistance objectives are eyed at the 2023 high-close (HC) and the August 2022 swing high at 7108/37, and 7214/08- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement and the 100% extension of the 2025 advance. Both areas represent zones of interest for possible top-side exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.

Weekly support rests with the 2024 high-week close (HWC) and he 2024 yearly open at 6795-6811. Note that the median-line converges on this zone over the next few weeks and a break / weekly close below would be needed to threaten a larger correction within the November uptrend. Subsequent support rests at the 2025 close high at 6717, with broader bullish invalidation now raised to the objective yearly open at 6674. A break / close below this threshold would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place and a larger trend reversal is underway.