Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Bulls Eye Key Resistance as December Range Takes Shape

Australian Technical Forecast: AUD/USD Weekly Trade Levels

• AUD/USD rebounded approaching confluent resistance as the December opening-range begins to take shape- possible head-and-shoulders formation identified
• Recent rally may be vulnerable, and the immediate focus is on the reaction to this key barrier as price approaches the 2022 trendline
• Resistance 6592/98 (key), 6651, 6723 - Support 6453 (key), 6404/20, 6357

The Australian Dollar closed November with a V-shaped recovery, and the AUD/USD rebound is now approaching pivotal resistance as the December opening-range begins to take shape. Price has not yet reached the barrier, but the push toward the 2022 trendline defines a critical area of interest in the sessions ahead. While the near-term outlook remains constructive, the reaction into this zone will be key in determining whether the advance can extend or if a near-term inflection takes hold. Traders should stay alert as momentum carries the pair toward this threshold. Battle lines drawn on the AUD/USD weekly technical chart.

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Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Australian Dollar Forecast we noted that, “from a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 6605 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 6469 needed to fuel the next leg of this decline…” AUD/USD registered an intraweek high at 6580 the following week before turning lower and although price did mark a weekly close low at 6456, the bears were unable to break below the 61.8% extension of the September decline at 6453.

The subsequent rebound has now rallied more than 2.2% off the lows and with confluent resistance now in view at 6592/98- a region defined by the 2025 high-week close and the 61.8% retracement of the decline off the yearly high. Note that the 2022 trendline converges on this threshold over the next few weeks, and a breach / weekly close above is needed to keep the bulls in control here. Subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the 2025 high-close at 6651 and the 78.6% retracement of the 2024 decline at 6723.

A break below the weekly lows would expose key support at the 38.2% retracement of the yearly range and the 52-week moving average at 6404/20. Losses below this threshold would put a potential head-and-shoulders pattern in play with subsequent support objectives eyed at the February high-week close (HWC) at 6356 and the 2025 low-week close (LWC) at 6290. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached.