Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Bulls Cling to 4K- Exhaustion Low Ahead?
Gold holds near 4K support after a multi-week decline as bulls hold the line. Exhaustion risk builds into the new month. Battle lines drawn on the weekly technical chart.
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Gold Technical Forecast: XAU/USD Weekly Trade Levels
- Gold plunge settles 8.7% off the record high with XAU/USD holding just above the 4K mark
- While the broader trend remains constructive, near-term momentum has weakened, and the focus is on a possible exhaustion low forming in the weeks ahead
- Immediate focus is on a break of last week’s range for guidance
- Resistance ~4080, 4193 (key), 4356– Support 3847, 3720 (key), 3500
Gold prices are stabilizing near the 4K mark after a sharp pullback, with XAU/USD price action nearly printing a weekly doji into the monthly open. The formation underscores growing indecision in the market following a multi-week decline. Momentum has eased from recent extremes and, while the broader uptrend remains intact, the latest pullback keeps the focus on a breakout from last week’s consolidation for directional clarity. Battle lines drawn on the XAU/USD weekly technical chart.
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Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In last month’s Gold Technical Forecast we noted that XAU/USD had, “extended into record highs this week with multi-year extremes registered in momentum, range, and duration- the exhaustion risk is mounting. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 4000 IF price is heading higher on this stretch…” Gold plummeted 11.3% off the record high in the following days and despite registering an intra-week low at 3886, price has been unable to mark a weekly close below the psychological 4K mark. In fact, XAU/USD closed at 4000.57 on Friday with a loss of just 0.5% marking the third consecutive weekly decline and the smallest weekly range since mid-September.
The November opening-range is now defined by last week’s candle, and the immediate focus is on a breakout for guidance. After a nine-week stint, weekly momentum (RSI) has narrowly slipped below the overbought condition and while the broader outlook remains constructive, the threat for a deeper pullback remains below the median-line.
Weekly support rests with the 50% retracement of the late-August advance at 3847. Note that this level converges on the 25% parallel of the 2025 pitchfork and the upper parallel of the broader 2024 upslope- look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Medium-term bullish invalidation rests at the 61.8% retracement, which converges on the lower parallel over the next few weeks at 3720. A break / close below this threshold would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place / a larger trend reversal is underway.
Initial resistance is eyed with the median-line (currently near ~4080) and is backed by the 61.8% retracement of the October decline at 4193. A breach / weekly close above this level is needed to mark uptrend resumption with subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the record high-day close (HDC) at 4356 and the 1.618% extension of the January advance at 4553.
Bottom line: Gold remains vulnerable into the start of the month but be on the lookout for a possible exhaustion low in the weeks ahead. The immediate focus is on a breakout of last week’s range for near-term guidance here. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited 3720 for the 2025 uptrend to remain viable, with a close above 4192 needed to fuel the next leg higher in price.
Note that U.S. economic data remains limited next week amid the ongoing government shutdown and markets will be closely tracking any developments regarding the ongoing negotiations (or lack thereof). Stay nimble early in the month and watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest Gold Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trade levels.
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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
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