Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Plunges to Pivotal Trend Support

Australian Technical Forecast: AUD/USD Weekly Trade Levels

• AUD/USD reversal off trend resistance now testing first major uptrend support
• The focus is on a potential inflection off this slope- key U.S. inflation data on tap next week
• Resistance 6550/65, 6650 (key), 6723 - Support 6469 (key), 6404, 6357

The Australian Dollar has come under renewed pressure, with AUD/USD falling more than 2.3% off the October highs after breaking below the monthly opening range. The decline follows a reversal off yearly uptrend resistance, with price now testing pivotal trend support. A break below the median-line would risk a deeper pullback within the broader formation, while stabilization at this slope could offer a near-term recovery. Battle lines drawn on the AUD/USD weekly technical chart.

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Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Australian Dollar Forecast we noted that AUD/USD had, “reversed off uptrend resistance last month and the focus is on this pullback into lateral support. The October opening-range is taking shape just above- look for the breakout in the weeks ahead. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 6650 IF price is heading for a deeper correction on this stretch with a break / close below 6650 needed to charge the decline.” The monthly opening-range broke lower two-days later with Aussie plunging nearly 4% off the September / yearly high.

The decline exhausted this week into the July low-week close (LWC) a 6469. Note that this level converges on the median-line of the yearly uptrend (blue) and the 2022 trendline (red) and further highlights the technical significance of this zone in the weeks ahead. A break / weekly close below this slope is needed to suggest a larger correction is underway here with subsequent support objectives seen at the 52-week moving average (currently ~6419), the 382% retracement of the yearly range at 6404 and the February high-week close (HWC) at 6357. Broader bullish invalidation rests with 2025 LWC at 6290.

Weekly resistance is now at the 61.8% retracement of the 2024 decline / July HWC at 6550/65 and is backed by the yearly high-close at 6650. A breach / weekly close above this threshold is needed to suggest a more significant low is in place / mark resumption of the yearly uptrend with subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the 78.6% retracement at 6723 and the 2024 HWC / yearly open at 6795-6810 (both levels of interest for possible topside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached).