Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook: AUD/USD Bulls Eye Breakout
AUD/USD is poised to mark a fifth daily advance as the Aussie bulls test trend resistance at fresh yearly highs. Battle lines drawn on the short-term technical charts.
Share this:
Australian Dollar Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Short-term Trade Levels
- AUD/USD poised to mark fifth-daily advance- testing trend resistance at fresh yearly high
- Australian Dollar risk for exhaustion / price inflection- Fed, PCE, NFP on tap into monthly cross
- Resistance 6622 (key), 6671, 6723– Support 6581, 6486-6506 (key), 6458
The Australian Dollar surged more than 1.8% this week with AUD/USD now testing multi-month uptrend resistance at fresh yearly highs. The focus is on today’s close with the immediate advance vulnerable while below this key slope. Battlelines drawn on the Aussie short-term technical charts.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this AUD/USD technical setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Daily
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In my last Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook we noted that AUD/USD had responded to uptrend resistance and that, “From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 6458 IF Aussie is heading for a breakout on this stretch with a close above 6622 needed to mark uptrend resumption.” Aussie plunged more than 2% off the monthly highs with price briefly registering an intraday low at 6455 before rebounding sharply higher. A five-day rally takes price into confluent resistance at the September low / upper parallel at 6622- watch the close with respect to this zone today.
Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD 240min
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView
Notes: A closer look at Aussie price action shows AUD/USD driving into uptrend resistance in early U.S. trade. A breakout of the July opening-range remains vulnerable while below this key slope and a breach / close above is needed to fuel the next leg of the advance. Subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the 2019 low at 6671 and the 78.6% retracement of the broader 2024 decline at 6723.
Initial support rests with the July open at 6581 and is backed by the May high-day close (HDC) / weekly open at 6486-6506. Losses would need to be limited to this region for the late-June advance to remain viable (near-term bullish invalidation). Subsequent support seen at the June low-day close (LDC) at 6458 with a break below 6350 ultimately needed to suggest a more significant high is in place / larger reversal is underway.
Bottom line: A breakout of the July opening-range takes AUD/USD into confluent uptrend resistance- risk for topside exhaustion / price inflection here. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops – losses should be limited to 6486 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above this slope needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.
Keep in mind the FOMC interest rate decision is on tap next week with Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and Non-Farm Payrolls (NFPs) slated into the monthly cross. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly closes here. Review my latest Australian Dollar Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.
Key Economic Data Releases
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
Active Short-term Technical Charts
- Gold Short-term Outlook: XAU/USD Breakout Eyes Record Highs
- Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook: USD/CHF Rejected at Resistance
- Canadian Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD/CAD Coils Below Key Resistance
- US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Bulls Eye Breakout at Resistance
Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
Latest market news
The complete CFD trading experience
Award-winning platforms, competitive spreads, low commissions and dedicated support.
We live and breathe the markets and are dedicated to helping traders realise their ambitions as we continue to set the industry bar.
Economic calendar
Web Trader platform
Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Related articles
Nvidia Earnings Preview: NVDA’s First Test of the Post Jenson Huang Era
Nvidia is expected to report $2.47 in EPS on $108.8B in revenue this quarter, but investors will be more interested in the company's guidance after the unexpected departure of founder and CEO Jenson Huang.
US dollar forecast: USD/JPY and USD/CHF in focus | Forex Friday
Sticky US inflation and a hawkish Fed have kept the dollar firm across the majors, with USD/JPY pressing on the 160 handle. Here are the levels that matter on USD/JPY and USD/CHF as next week's retail sales, Nvidia results and FOMC minutes approach.
Swiss Franc Forecast: USD/CHF 3% Rally Threatens Multi-Year Downtrend 11 13 2026
USD/CHF has erased its October losses, but bulls still need a decisive weekly close above key resistance to confirm a larger bullish reversal.
StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation.
StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.