DAX weakens: US stock markets hit record highs, Oracle explodes

US Markets & Earnings

• S&P 500 & Nasdaq closed at record highs (+0.3% and +0.03% respectively), while the Dow fell 0.5%.
• Oracle surged 36% (biggest one-day gain since 1992), lifting AI-related chipmakers and power suppliers.
• Producer Prices (PPI) for August came in softer than expected, reinforcing expectations of a Fed rate cut next week.
• Barclays & Deutsche Bank raised their 2025 S&P 500 targets to 7,000, citing strong earnings, AI growth, and supportive economic backdrop.

Global Markets

• Asia (Japan, Taiwan, South Korea) rallied to record highs on Fed rate-cut bets and Oracle-driven AI enthusiasm.
• Key data today:
  • ECB Rate Decision (1:15pm): Expected hold at 2%. Watch inflation commentary.
  • US CPI (1:30pm): Forecast +0.3% MoM, +2.8% YoY. Core CPI expected +0.3% MoM, +3.1% YoY.
  • US Jobless Claims: Expected 240K vs 237K prior.

Corporate Developments

• Microsoft partnered with Anthropic to integrate its AI (Claude Sonnet 4) into Office apps (Word, Excel, Outlook, PowerPoint), diversifying beyond OpenAI.
• Insiders note Anthropic’s models outperform OpenAI’s in Excel automation and PowerPoint generation.
• Microsoft already uses Anthropic’s Claude and xAI’s Grok in GitHub Copilot, while developing its own in-house AI models.
• Apple launched iPhone 17 Air, Watch, and AirPods Pro 3:
  • Stock fell after the event (−1.5%) as launch perceived lackluster.
  • AirPods’ live translation feature triggered a 5% drop in Duolingo shares.
  • iPhone Air priced at $999, thinnest ever at 5.6mm, with titanium frame, A19 Pro chip, and dual-camera recording.
• Oracle (after hours): Stock rose nearly 27% on strong AI-driven cloud forecast.
  • CEO Safra Catz projects $144B AI cloud revenue by 2030 (up from $18B this year).
  • Signed four multibillion-dollar Q1 contracts; backlog now $455B.
• GameStop revenue rose 22% to $972M in Q2, driven by a 63% jump in collectibles sales. Shares up 3% after hours.

Crypto & Digital Assets

• First US Dogecoin ETF to launch Thursday under Rex-Osprey.
• Metaplanet (Japan) raised $1.4B via stock offering to expand bitcoin holdings.
• Analysts: Fed rate cuts of 75–100 bps could trigger $6B inflows into Bitcoin ETFs.

Europe – DAX Technical Analysis 4 hour chart

The DAX (Germany 40 CFD) has continued to trade within a broad ascending channel, marked by higher lows since mid-June. Despite multiple failed attempts to break the 24,648 resistance level, the index has shown a tendency to hold key dynamic support, especially near the lower boundary of the channel. Recent price action reflects a broadening wedge or megaphone pattern, with volatility increasing over time. The failure to sustain gains above 24,400 and the consistent rejection near the upper boundary suggests weakening bullish momentum.

On the downside, support is converging near the 23,500–23,600 zone, where both the lower channel line and a previous accumulation area align. The RSI has hovered around 40–50, indicating neither oversold nor overbought conditions, while the Stochastic RSI has begun to curl upwards from oversold levels, hinting at short-term upside potential. However, the 20–200 EMAs remain above current price levels, acting as layered resistance. A daily close above the descending wedge could renew bullish interest, but until then, the bias leans slightly bearish within the broader uptrend.

Europe – Southern Banks leading growth

• Spain, Italy, Greece, Portugal outperformed broader Europe YTD, led by banks (39–48% index weighting vs 25% in STOXX 600).
• Bank earnings boosted by higher rates and stronger yield curve.
• Analysts upgraded European bank earnings forecasts by +4.2% (2025) and +3.4% (2026).
• Stability in credit quality and deposits, along with reforms, support continued Southern Europe strength.

Trade & Tariffs

• EU unlikely to impose tariffs on India or China (main Russian oil buyers), despite US pressure.
• EU officials: Tariffs risk being too broad; easier to sanction specific entities.
• South Korea–US trade talks: Discussions ongoing on visas, defence costs, and nuclear material issues.
• US President Trump halted deportation of Korean workers, giving Hyundai-LG battery plant staff the option to stay.

Political & Geopolitical Updates

• US:
  • Trump admin appealed ruling blocking Fed Governor Cook’s removal.
  • Senate Republicans aim to confirm Trump’s Fed pick Stephen Miran soon.
• Middle East:
  • Israeli PM Netanyahu threatened Qatar and Turkey with military attack.
  • Qatar condemned threats, warned of regional chaos, and reconsidered mediation role.
  • Trump had heated call with Netanyahu over Israeli strike in Qatar.
  • US Pentagon approved $14.2M support package for Lebanon to counter non-state groups like Hezbollah.
• Russia–Ukraine:
  • Zelensky discussed sanctions with EU and US, called for joint air defense and drone production funding.
  • Poland reported Russian violation of airspace; received allied support offers.
  • Macron and Trump discussed developments in Russia’s war.
  • UN Security Council to meet Friday on Russia’s airspace violations.
  • EU vows to significantly increase sanctions on Russia.