Forex Seasonality – August 2024: Bearish Implications for GBP/USD and AUD/USD
August has historically been the weakest month for GBP/USD and AUD/USD - see what other past tendencies we can glean about forex seasonality in the upcoming month!
Share this:
August Forex Seasonality Key Points
- August has historically been the weakest month for GBP/USD and AUD/USD.
- EUR/USD seasonality hints at downside potential, but the broader post-2023 range remains intact.
- USD/CAD has tended to see bullish price action in August, but after a big run-up to close July, a near-term dip could be in the cards.
The beginning of a new month marks a good opportunity to review the seasonal patterns that have influenced the forex market over the 50+ years since the Bretton Woods system was dismantled in 1971, ushering in the modern foreign exchange market.
As always, these seasonal tendencies are just historical averages, and any individual month or year may vary from the historic average, so it’s important to complement these seasonal leans with alternative forms of analysis to create a long-term successful trading strategy. In other words, past performance is not indicative of future results.
Euro Forex Seasonality – EUR/USD Chart
Source: TradingView, StoneX. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Historically, August has been a modestly bearish month for EUR/USD, with an average return of -0.08% across the month over the last 50+ years. July’s positive month (as of writing) matched the historic tendency but the world’s most widely-traded currency pair remains broadly flat within the year-to-date range between 1.06 and 1.10 so traders will be hoping for some volatility in either direction to inject some excitement into the pair
British Pound Forex Seasonality – GBP/USD Chart
Source: TradingView, StoneX. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Looking at the above chart, GBP/USD has historically seen its weakest performance in August, with average returns of around -0.49% since 1971. Cable did generally track with its bullish seasonality last month, and with the pair testing 2+ year highs near 1.30 as July winds down, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the pair pull back heading into September.
Japanese Yen Forex Seasonality – USD/JPY Chart
Source: TradingView, StoneX. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
August has historically been a bearish month for USD/JPY, with the pair falling by an average of -0.28% in August since the Bretton Woods agreement. As the chart above shows, the entire late-summer/early fall window from June-October has historically been bearish for the pair, and with the BOJ expected to be one of the only major central banks tightening monetary policy in the latter half of the year, a (continued) run of yen strength wouldn’t be surprising.
Australian Dollar Forex Seasonality – AUD/USD Chart
Source: TradingView, StoneX. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Turning our attention Down Under, AUD/USD has seen historically bearish returns in August, with an average decline of -0.57% across the month, its most negative of all months. Taking a look at the AUD/USD chart, prices are near the middle of the year-to-date range, and a decline in August could be enough to drive rates toward the multi-year lows near 0.6300.
Canadian Dollar Forex Seasonality – USD/CAD Chart
Source: TradingView, StoneX. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Last but not least, August has been a somewhat bullish month for USD/CAD going back to 1971, with an average historical return of +0.16%. The North American pair is in the midst of a big bullish run as of writing, leaving rates overbought on a short-term basis as they approach 4+ year highs near 1.3900, so a near-term dip early in the month could be in the cards before the longer-term bullish seasonality reasserts itself.
As always, we want to close this article by reminding readers that seasonal tendencies are not gospel – even if they’ve tracked relatively closely so far this year – so it’s important to complement this analysis with an examination of the current fundamental and technical backdrops for the major currency pairs.
-- Written by Matt Weller, Global Head of Research
Check out Matt’s Daily Market Update videos on YouTube and be sure to follow Matt on Twitter: @MWellerFX
Related tags:
The complete CFD trading experience
Award-winning platforms, competitive spreads, low commissions and dedicated support.
We live and breathe the markets and are dedicated to helping traders realise their ambitions as we continue to set the industry bar.
Economic calendar
Web Trader platform
Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Related articles
Bitcoin, Gold Outlook: Bullish Hold or Bearish Shift?
Bitcoin, Gold Outlook: The dollar’s surge to new 2026 highs and approach toward nine-month resistance are raising near-term reversal risks across precious metals and currency markets. This follows recent declines that pushed Bitcoin below $70,000 and gold below $3,870.
DAX Outlook: 27,000 Rejection Puts Key Support in Focus
The DAX faces a critical test after failing to sustain its breakout above 27,000. Opening weakness puts the 26,663 support zone in focus, while the broader uptrend remains intact. US producer inflation, European GDP data and Fed speakers could drive volatility throughout the session. Meanwhile, NVIDIA's reported leadership shake-up and a Microsoft service disruption add uncertainty to technology stocks.
AUD/USD Outlook: Historic yield squeeze leaves Aussie bears in control
Australian bond yields have fallen below their US equivalents as the Fed's hawkish repricing gathers momentum. With the Aussie weakening broadly, technical signals suggest sellers remain in control.
StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation.
StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.