Gold Short-term Outlook: XAU/USD Soars to Highs, Stalls Below 3600
Gold rallied to fresh record highs this week but stalled just ahead of 3600- NFPs on tap. Battlelines drawn on the XAU/USD short-term technical charts.
Share this:
Gold Technical Outlook: XAU/USD Short-term Trade Levels
- Gold break of yearly uptrend snaps back- rebound now testing resistance at major pivot-zone
- XAU/USD weekly / monthly opening-range taking shape- break to define next leg
- Resistance 34578, 3600(key), 3666- Support 3491-3500, 3432/51 (key), 3374/81
Gold prices surged to fresh record highs this week with XAU/USD poised to mark a third consecutive weekly advance. Price is responding to confluent uptrend resistance today with the bears now threatening to snap a seven-day winning streak. The immediate advance may be vulnerable while below 3600. Battle lines drawn on the XAU/USD short-term technical charts ahead of tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payrolls report.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold technical setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Daily
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In last month’s Gold Short-term Outlook we noted that the XAU/USD rally may be vulnerable near-term and that, “From at trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to the monthly open IF price is heading higher on this stretch. A close above 3451 is ultimately needed to fuel the next leg of the broader multi-year uptrend.” Gold fell nearly 2.9% off the monthly high before rebounding off the May trendline, well ahead of the monthly open.
The subsequent breakout has now extended more than 8% off the late-August lows with gold exhausting into resistance last week at the upper parallel of the ascending pitchfork extending off the July / August lows- looking for a reaction off this mark early in the month with the broader rally vulnerable in the near-term while below this slope.
Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD 240min
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView
Notes: A closer look at gold price action shows XAU/USD reversing sharply off confluent resistance at the 1.618% extension of the June advance and the 100% extension of the Broder May advance at 3578. A topside breach above this threshold exposes the upper parallel / 3600- look for a larger reaction there IF reached with a close above this slope needed to fuel the next major leg of the gold advance. Subsequent resistance objectives are eyed at the 300% extension of 2011 decline at 3666, and the 1.618% extension of the May advance at 3782.
Initial support rests with the 100% extension of the recent decline / April high at 3492-3500 with bullish invalidation at 3432/52- a region defined by the June high close, the objective September open, the 38.2% retracement of the June advance and the June swing high. A break below this threshold would suggest a more significant high is in place / a larger correct is underway with the next technical consideration seen at 3374/81.
Bottom line: Gold responded to confluent uptrend resistance this week with the September opening-range taking shape just below- look for the breakout in the days ahead for guidance. From a trading standpoint, pullbacks should be limited to 3432 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 3600 ultimately needed to fuel the next major leg of the gold advance.
Keep in mind we get the release of Non-Farm Payrolls tomorrow with key inflation data on tap next week. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest Gold Weekly Technical Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term XAU/USD trade levels.
Key Economic Data Releases
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
Active Short-term Technical Charts
- Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook: USD/CHF Coils Above Key Support
- Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook: AUD/USD Tests Key Resistance
- Canadian Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD/CAD Plunges to Key Support
- US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Tests Critical Support Zone
- Euro Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD Hits Trend Resistance- Reversal Risk
- British Pound Short-term Outlook: GBP/USD Threatens July Downtrend
- Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook: USD/JPY Tests Uptrend Support
--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
Latest market news
The complete CFD trading experience
Award-winning platforms, competitive spreads, low commissions and dedicated support.
We live and breathe the markets and are dedicated to helping traders realise their ambitions as we continue to set the industry bar.
Economic calendar
Web Trader platform
Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Related articles
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook: Bulls Eye Higher Range After Historic Rate Shock
A historic US rate shock has sent USD/JPY above 160, but with intervention risks rising and few major economic catalysts ahead, AI sentiment could hold the key to the next move.
Nvidia Earnings Preview: NVDA’s First Test of the Post Jenson Huang Era
Nvidia is expected to report $2.47 in EPS on $108.8B in revenue this quarter, but investors will be more interested in the company's guidance after the unexpected departure of founder and CEO Jenson Huang.
US dollar forecast: USD/JPY and USD/CHF in focus | Forex Friday
Sticky US inflation and a hawkish Fed have kept the dollar firm across the majors, with USD/JPY pressing on the 160 handle. Here are the levels that matter on USD/JPY and USD/CHF as next week's retail sales, Nvidia results and FOMC minutes approach.
StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation.
StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.