Nasdaq 100 Update: New all-time highs bring NDX closer to 30k

Nasdaq equity index started the week with bullish short-term momentum, posting gains of more than 2.5% over the last two sessions and holding above the 29,000 level. This move continues to push the index closer to the psychological 30,000 mark, reinforcing the dominance of bullish bias in the short term.

Part of this buying pressure has been supported by a sense of calm in the market, along with the strong performance of key components within the index. However, it is important to keep in mind that US inflation data will be released in the next session, which could introduce a phase of indecision in Nasdaq price action in the coming days.

Bullish sentiment remains in place

The week has started with new updates in the Middle East, where the United States and Iran have exchanged proposals. Although a formal agreement has not yet been reached, negotiations remain active, with countries such as Pakistan acting as mediators in the process.

This environment, while not confirming a final agreement, has also not shown further military escalation, which has allowed market optimism to remain stable and continue supporting demand for risk assets such as Nasdaq.

In fact, looking at the market sentiment indicator, the Fear and Greed Index, readings remain around the 68 level, holding steady near “extreme greed” territory. This suggests that, despite the lack of a concrete agreement, confidence continues to be a relevant factor in the short term.

Source: CNN

In addition to this backdrop, it is also important to consider the performance of key index components. Companies such as Micron have posted gains of more than 8.00% during the session, driven by concerns over potential disruptions in the memory market, following possible strikes at Samsung, one of its main competitors.

This situation could lead to a tighter supply environment and improve pricing expectations within the sector. At the same time, it reinforces the narrative of strong structural demand in the semiconductor industry, particularly in segments linked to artificial intelligence, indirectly benefiting companies such as Nvidia and maintaining optimism in the technology sector.

Both factors, the geopolitical environment and the performance of key companies, have helped sustain confidence in Nasdaq. This is also reflected in market activity, where trading volume in E-mini-Nasdaq 100 futures remains above 500,000 contracts, which, combined with the recent price increase, suggests continued inflows of buying positions in the short term.

Source: CMEGROUP

Taking all of this into account, demand within Nasdaq has not shown meaningful signs of weakening so far. Geopolitical optimism and the strength of the technology sector continue to support the bullish move. However, the sustainability of this scenario will depend on both concrete progress in the Middle East and the performance of key companies such as Nvidia, which is scheduled to report earnings on May 20.

 

Could the CPI release become a risk?

Beyond the current confidence environment, it is important to consider the upcoming US CPI release, where inflation is expected at 3.7%, compared to 3.3% previously.

A higher-than-expected reading could reinforce expectations of a more aggressive central bank, maintaining elevated interest rates for a longer period.

In fact, even ahead of the release, an impact is already visible in the US bond market, where the 10-year yield has moved back above 4.4%, approaching recent highs. This trend could intensify if inflation surprises to the upside.

Source: TradingEconomics

This factor is key because rising bond yields can reduce the attractiveness of equity markets by offering a more stable alternative for investors. This could limit capital flows into risk assets such as Nasdaq.

In this context, if inflation continues to push yields higher, Nasdaq could face a more challenging environment to sustain new all-time highs, as the strength of the fixed income market begins to compete directly with equity demand.

Therefore, this event could act as a key catalyst to moderate short-term confidence and introduce a phase of indecision in the coming sessions.

 

Technical outlook for the Nasdaq 100

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

• Aggressive trendline remains intact: Recent price action has managed to hold a relevant bullish trendline, which has been in place since early April. This reflects the dominance of the bullish bias and suggests that, as long as no significant downside correction appears, this structure may continue to act as the dominant pattern in the coming weeks.
   
• MACD: Despite the bullish bias, the MACD is starting to show a divergence, with lower highs in the indicator while the Nasdaq price continues to print higher highs. This behavior may be signaling a loss of momentum in the bullish trend and opens the door to potential short-term corrections.
   
• RSI: Similarly, the RSI remains in overbought territory above 70, indicating an excess of buying pressure, which may also warn of possible short-term pullbacks as the current imbalance in market forces begins to build.
   

Key levels:

• 30,000 points – Key resistance: A key psychological level given the lack of historical references. A sustained break above this zone could reinforce the bullish bias and extend the current trend as the dominant structure in the coming sessions.
   

• 27,600 points – Near-term barrier: A recent retracement level that stands as immediate support. This level could act as a key reference in the event of short-term corrections.
   
• 26,648 points – Key support: A zone of recent lows that acts as the main downside barrier. A move toward this level could challenge the strength of the current trend and open the door to a phase of indecision or consolidation in the short term.
   

Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst

Follow him on: @julianpineda25