Oil Price Forecast: WTI Rebounds from Pivotal Support- Next Leg Hinges on the Break

Crude Oil Technical Forecast: WTI Weekly, Daily & Intraday Trade Levels

• WTI rebounded sharply from confluent support after an early-week pullback, stabilizing the broader December advance.
• Weekly range set between key technical barriers- breakout to dictate near-term direction.
• Resistance 66.08/40 (key), 67.86, 70.63/91- Support 62.90, 61.44-62.07 (key), 59.36

WTI has rebounded from a pivotal support zone after a sharp pullback into the start of February, reinforcing the integrity of the broader advance from the December lows. The recovery has carried price back toward technical resistance, an area that now serves as a near-term decision point for the market. While the multi-month channel structure remains intact, follow-through above this zone will be required to confirm continuation of the rally. How price resolves this consolidation is likely to determine whether the advance extends or pauses before the next leg develops. Battle lines drawn on the weekly, daily, and 240min technical charts.

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Oil Price Chart – WTI Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; WTI on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Oil Price Forecast we noted that WTI had, “broken out of a multi-month downtrend with the advance now testing initial resistance hurdles at the November highs. While the breakout does shift the medium-term outlook higher, the immediate advance may be vulnerable while below this level. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 59.33 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 62.05 needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.” Oil turned lower two-days later and despite registering a close-low at 59.29 and numerous intraday attempts to break support, the bulls were able to mount an assault into the close of January with price surging more than 19.2% off the monthly low. The rally exhausted into resistance last week and the focus is on inflection off this key zone with a break / close above needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.

 

Oil Price Chart – WTI Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; WTI on TradingView

A look at the daily chart highlights a decline of more than 8% into the start of February with WTI rebounding sharply off confluent support yesterday at 61.44-62.07- a region defined by the April 2025 low-week close (LWC), the September low, and the 38.2% retracement of the December advance. Note that basic channel support converges on this threshold and keeps the multi-month uptrend intact.

The rebound has extended nearly 6.5% off the weekly lows with WTI now approaching the weekly / monthly open at 65.74. Key resistance is eyed just higher at 66.08/40- a region defined by the 100% extension of the December advance, the 2024 low-day close (LDC) and the September high. A break of this week’s range will dictate the next move here with the initial February opening-range now set between two key technical barriers.

Oil Price Chart – WTI 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; WTI on TradingView

A closer look at oil price action shows WTI trading within the confines of an ascending pitchfork extending off the December low with price testing the 75% parallel mid-week. Initial support rests with the October high at 62.90 with near-term bullish invalidation now raised to 61.44. Losses below this threshold would suggest a more significant high is in place and a larger reversal is underway towards the 61.8% retracement at 59.36 and the yearly open at 57.58.

A topside breach / daily close above 66.29 is needed to mark resumption of the uptrend with subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the 50% retracement of the 2025 range near 67.86. The next major technical consideration is eyed at 70.63/91 where the 1.618% extension converges on the 61.8% retracement- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Bottom line: The weekly opening-range is defined by Monday’s candle- the immediate focus is on a breakout of this zone with the outlook constructive while within this multi-month channel. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 61.44 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 66.40 needed to fuel the next leg of the rally.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

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