Latest Research

Despite a powerful winter storm forcing the Federal Reserve’s Washington DC offices to close, the central bank was still able to release the minutes from its late January meeting.

If the FOMC minutes convey a dovish message, bear in mind that this may already be priced in. However, should they reveal a significantly more dovish message than what Mr Powell and co have since portrayed, then we could see a more pronounced drop in bond yields and the dollar.

Rumours are circulating that 3 Conservative lawmakers are to follow the 7 Labour MPs and defect to the Independent Group later today.

US and Chinese trade negotiators kicked off another round of talks today after President Trump labeled last week’s discussions in Beijing “very productive.” Today and tomorrow feature lower-level officials to the table, with higher-level policymakers including US Trade Representative Lighthizer, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, and Vice Prenier Liu He, c...

With the Fed dropping its hawkish bias, and with recent US data deteriorating slightly, bond prices should remain supported and yields undermined going forward

Despite today’s slight pullback in risk assets, the start of 2019 has been very good for equities, commodities and government bond prices.

With both the US and Canada out on a bank holiday, we’re seeing a relatively quiet session in the FX market. As the chart below shows, the dollar index is falling for its third consecutive day after rally though the first seven days of the month.

At a good $1325 per ounce, the precious metal is trading just under its 2019 high of $1326 it hit at the end of January. Gold is now not too far off the 2018 peak of $1366, where I think it is potentially heading to over the coming weeks.

In the middle of the week, the RBNZ opted to leave its primary interest rate unchanged at 1.75%, where the central bank expects it to remain for a “considerable period.” Governor Orr and company noted that there were both upside and downside risks to inflation; therefore, the next change to interest rates could either be higher or lower.

Sentiment turned positive apparently on renewed hopes over a US-China trade deal, as the third round of talks between the two parties since Presidents Trump and Xi agreed on a truce in December 2018, concluded.

Today’s latest macro pointers from some of the major developed economies have disappointed expectations – quite badly, in some cases – fuelling fears over an economic slowdown.

The EUR/USD and other euro crosses remain pressured by growing signs of a slowdown in the Eurozone economy. An interest rate increase in Q3 looks increasingly unlikely now given the recent fundamental developments — or lack thereof — with the Brexit situation still unresolved and the Eurozone economy ailing.