US futures
Dow futures -0.40%, S&P futures -0.35% & Nasdaq futures 0.50%
In Europe
FTSE 0.15%6 & DAX -0.31%
- Stocks fall after Trump announces 15% global trade tariffs
- The US Supreme Court ruled 6-3 against Trump’s reciprocal tariffs
- NVIDIA reports earnings on Wednesday
- Oil falls after rising 5.5% last week on US-Iran worries
Stocks slip after Trump renews tariff worries
US stocks are heading to a weaker open on Monday amid renewed tariff uncertainties, sending jitters through markets.
On Friday, the Supreme Court, in a 6 to 3 ruling, deemed most of Trump's reciprocal tariffs imposed last year illegal, finding that the emergency law on which he relied did not authorise their imposition.
However, using a different statute, Trump announced first a 10% global trade tariff and then a 15% tariff that could last 150 days while the administration searches for a more lasting solution.
Just as the market thought the tariff uncertainty was behind them, it appears trade confusion has returned, with tariffs once again in focus as countries and companies try to establish what the playing field really looks like so they can plan accordingly.
With a 15% flat rate, there are clearly winners and losers. China, for example, is a winner while the UK would be a loser when compared to the previously agreed deals.While these latest developments are creating swings in the market, they are modest compared to last April. How quickly this settles depends on the approach trading partners take to the new tariffs and if there is pushback.
Looking out across the week, the US economic calendar is relatively quiet, with U.S. consumer confidence data tomorrow and PPI inflation figures on Friday. There is also a slew of Fed speakers who might provide further insight into the outlook for interest rates after more hawkish-than-expected FOMC minutes last week and the PCE rising to 3%.
NVIDIA earnings on Wednesday will be a key focus, coming as tech valuations have come under scrutiny amid concerns over AI disruption and questions over whether massive spending on AI is actually paying off.
Corporate news
Novo Nordisk has dropped 13% after the drugmaker said its experimental obesity medication failed to meet the primary endpoint in an open-label head-to-head trial. Eli Lilly is rising 3% after Novo Nordisk’s obesity drug fell short against Lilly's in a Copenhagen drug trial.
NVIDIA is modestly lower ahead of the company's earnings release later this week, which could offer key insights into the AI sector, which has been hit by growing investor scrutiny.
Netflix is falling 0.7% after President Trump called on the streaming giant to fire board member Susan Rice or face consequences, following her remarks that Democrats would push for corporate accountability if they regain power in the November midterm elections. The Department of Justice is currently reviewing Netflix's proposed acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery.
S&P 500 forecast – technical analysis.
After reaching a record high of 7000, the S&P 500 eased lower and continues to trade in a familiar range, capped on the downside by 6800 and on the upside by 7000. There are signs that momentum is slowing; the price is currently struggling to regain the 50 SMA. Failure to retake this level could see the price fall back to test 6800. A break below here and 6730 would create a lower low, changing the chart's structure. Buyers would need to rise above the 50 SMA at 6900 to extend gains towards 7000.
FX markets – USD flat, EUR/USD rises
The U.S. dollar is almost unchanged on Monday after the US Supreme Court’s decision against Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. Given that multiple avenues could be pursued, this is likely a short-term reaction rather than a fundamental change of position.
EUR/USD is modestly higher as the European Union warns it will accept no increases in US tariffs, demanding the US stick to the terms of the trade agreement reached last year and saying a deal is a deal. Meanwhile, the German Ifo business climate is at its five-month high amid signs of an economic recovery.
GBP/USD is rising but remains below 1.35 after falling 1.2% last week. UK inflation and unemployment data paved the way for another 25 basis point rate reduction in March. This week, the UK economic calendar is quiet; attention will remain on political fears surrounding the Labour government ahead of a crucial by-election, which poses significant risks to PM Starmer’s ability to hold onto power.
Oil eases from a 6-month high with US-Iran tensions in focus
Oil prices are easing at the start of the week after climbing 5.5% last week, with markets focused on escalating US-Iran tensions. Crude has slipped back to $66 per barrel at the time of writing, from a six-month high as investors assess the chances of a nuclear deal ahead of a third round of US-Iran talks.
Tensions intensified last week after President Trump gave Iran 10–15 days to reach an agreement or face consequences. The US also increased its military presence in the Middle East to its largest since 2003. Although reports suggest any potential US strike would target limited military or government sites, reducing immediate supply disruption risks. Still, concerns remain over possible Iranian retaliation. Any threat to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global crude flows, would keep a risk premium in prices.
Trump’s proposed 15% global tariffs add to concerns about growth and demand. Upcoming diplomatic developments, tariff updates, and inventory data will guide prices.
