Japanese yen crosses are sending mixed technical signals. USD/JPY and GBP/JPY are showing signs of stabilising after recent declines, although both still face nearby resistance. AUD/JPY looks less convincing, with downside momentum keeping the March low and lower support levels in focus.
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Japanese Yen Setups Diverge Across USD/JPY, GBP/JPY and AUD/JPY
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: US Dollar vs Japanese Yen
Friday’s bearish engulfing day suggests a near-term top is in place, though price action this week also suggests USD/JPY could recoup some of Friday’s losses. Three dojis have since formed, two with lower wicks to show demand above 156 and around the monthly pivot point.
The 200-day EMA and 50-day EMA are capping prices as resistance, so we could be in for some scrappy trade. And there may not be an immediate rush to get involved. Instead, recent price action could serve as a warning for bears to step aside and wait for a better opportunity.
Ideally, we’ll see evidence of a lower high relative to Thursday’s high just above 158. The 156 handle and May low at 155.03 are potential downside targets, a break beneath which brings the monthly S1 pivot into focus near the September low.
Source: ICE, TradingView
GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: British Pound vs Japanese Yen
A bullish outside day formed on Wednesday to hint at a swing low. The fact that it occurred around the February and September lows adds to the near-term bullish case. Also note that the monthly S2 pivot is nearby for additional support.
The 1-hour chart shows that the rally has stalled just beneath the weekly pivot point, so perhaps a pullback is due. Bulls could seek dips within yesterday’s range while prices hold above 206.85. As this is a countertrend move, conservative upside targets seem more appropriate unless a decent bullish catalyst arrives.
The April low at 209.64 and the 210 handle - near the weekly R1 pivot and high-volume node - are potential upside targets for bulls over the near term.
Source: ICE, TradingView
AUD/JPY Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar vs Japanese Yen
The Aussie yen is one of the few yen pairs that is not hinting at an imminent swing low. AUD/JPY is on track for a second consecutive weekly decline, and it appears that a much larger topping pattern is in play. It has found support at the 50-week EMA for now, though bearish momentum on the daily chart suggests AUD/JPY is also threatening to break the March low.
AUD/JPY remains on my ‘fade the rally’ watchlist, with a break of the March low bringing the 108 and 107 handles into focus, ahead of the December VPOC.
Source: ICE, TradingView
